“LEGO Batman” to Fend Off Comedy and White Saviors at Box Office Over Holiday Weekend

4-Day Holiday Weekend Forecast

	The LEGO Batman Movie	$45 million
	Fifty Shades Darker	$22.2 million
	Fist Fight	$21.5 million
	John Wick: Chapter 2	$20.7 million
	The Great Wall	$15 million

Another holiday weekend, another box office report, another time for the families — and anyone else who enjoys animated films and the Caped Crusader, really — to dominate. Despite the opening of three new films in wide release, it will, inevitably, be the Warner Bros. Animation film The LEGO Batman Movie that will come out on top for the second weekend in a row. One major reason, as it has been with 4-day holiday weekends in the past, is that children are out of school, giving the film more access to its core audience (not to mention it’ll be open in over 4,000 theaters, which is the most of any film this weekend). The last time there was a holiday weekend, the animated film Sing came in second with nearly $20 million and in its fourth week of release. LEGO Batman, furthermore, also has excellent reviews on its side and nothing opening this weekend is big enough or in the zeitgeist enough to top it.

Warner Bros. Animation

Things get really interesting, however, when we take a look at the next three films and the fact that any of them could end up anywhere in spots 2 – 4. All of them are predicted to open within less than a million of each other when all is said and done after Monday, but there are a few indicators that help give things away about where these films might land.

The first Fifty Shades film dropped 74 percent from its first to its second weekend in 2015 and it’s expected that its sequel will also perform more poorly this second time around. However, the holiday weekend will help the film, as will its loyal fanbase. Now, said loyal fanbase will have already seen the film in its opening weekend, as well as on Valentine’s Day this past week (when it passed LEGO Batman in domestic numbers), but it’s not a new thing for fans to see a film twice or people to wait beyond opening weekend to see a film so they can avoid those first weekend crowds. There’s definitely a chance it will fall even harder than predicted here, and not be able to claim the second place position, but it also very well could.

	Opening Weekend	Current Gross	Facebook Likes	Tweets
The LEGO Batman Movie	$53m	$62.5m	42,682	134,214
Fifty Shades Darker	$46.6m	$65.3m	227,359	495,977
Fist Fight	N/A	N/A	127,902	5,218
John Wick: Chapter 2	$30.4m	$40.1m	36,539	204,269
The Great Wall	N/A	N/A	189,387	15,871

Battling Fifty Shades Darker are two films with a whole lot of fighting in them — one’s a comedy, the other is a darker and highly anticipated sequel. Starring Charlie Day and Ice Cube, Fist Fight is a new comedy movie that pits Day against Cube, literally, as two high school teachers. The film isn’t getting great reviews (although nowhere near as bad as what Fifty Shades has been receiving), but its marketing campaign reveals it’s exactly what it seems like on the cover and if that’s your thing — that, of course, being a pretty run-of-the-mill comedy with decent laughs, but nothing uproarious — then it should be a pretty safe bet for the weekend.

Warner Bros. Pictures

Still, John Wick: Chapter 2, could also come out as the surprise victor of the three-way race. After all, it’s getting great reviews and fans have been looking forward to this film ever since the first one became a surprise hit in 2014. Granted, those fans are slightly more niche and even though this film has become a surprise hit as a franchise, it’s still not anything of a juggernaut. Plenty of people still haven’t even seen the first one, which severely limits the sequel from succeeding beyond the other two films it’s competing with this weekend.

	Rotten Tomatoes		IMDb	Metacritic
	Critics	Users	Stars
The LEGO Batman Movie	91	87	7.8	75
Fifty Shades Darker	9	60	4.9	33
Fist Fight	31	N/A	6.3	N/A
John Wick: Chapter 2	90	92	8.4	75
The Great Wall	34	N/A	6.3	46

Rounding out the top five is set to be the new Matt Damon and Pedro Pascal led action-fantasy film The Great Wall, which has been mired in controversy given Damon’s white savior role in a film that’s about people of color. Plus, it’s now receiving poor reviews and its marketing campaign has been nothing short of, well, terrible. There are scores of people who either have no idea what this movie is and what it’s about or do know what it’s about and have no interest (no shame there). It’s expected to bring in totals in the mid-teens once the holiday weekend is over and that’s the best it’s ever going to do.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets and Likes represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor