“Logan” to Claw Its Way to the Top of the Box Office, But Numbers Down Overall

	Logan	$68 million
	Get Out	$21.5 million
	The LEGO Batman Movie	$12 million
	The Shack	$10.4 million
	John Wick: Chapter 2	$5 million

This weekend, a superhero will once more top the box office and fend off its competitors. This time, it will be the mutant Wolverine in Logan, marking Hugh Jackman’s last outing as the clawed X-Man. However, despite the decent-sized opening of Logan (some have said its $65-70 million opening seems low), the weekend, overall, will be down in numbers, just as the entire year has been so far. January saw an 18.4 percent drop from 2016, while February suffered a 25 percent dip. While last February saw a total gross of $656 million, February of this year only made $491 million. Granted, 11 fewer films opened this February than last, but the numbers are still significant. This weekend is looking to be similarly down from the same weekend last year, where the top film was Zootopia, bringing in $75 million in its opening weekend. The rest of that weekend’s top five made similar amounts to what’s expected for this weekend’s films, except for Deadpool, which brought in $16 million in its fourth weekend.

While Logan won’t reach the heights of Zootopia, it’s still going to take the box office with ease, not only because it’s part of a larger franchise, but it also boasts big names — besides Jackman, there’s also Patrick Stewart. Plus, it’s a superhero film unlike any other, as it’s rated R for its violence and tone. Where Deadpool was violent and funny, Logan looks more serious and violent, exploring mature themes. And as mentioned above, it’s the last time Jackman will don the claws, which is sure to get more fans into the theaters. With an opening north of $65 million, it will be the second-highest opening for a Wolverine film, following 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine and coming out ahead of 2013’s The Wolverine. In the overall X-Men franchise, it will likely be the sixth-highest opening.

20th Century Fox

Some claim that it’s harder for R-rated films to have big openings and while they can never reach the heights of, say, an animated family film, it’s not impossible for them to succeed. Deadpool opened with more than $130 million; Fifty Shades of Grey opening with $85 million; and American Sniper, earned $89 million in its first wide release weekend. The audiences for R-rated films are, naturally, narrower, but there’s still an audience there. Logan has a built-in audience, but it’s not a flashy X-Men film (and the fact that the franchise has had its fair share of misses) and it’s been employing a quieter marketing campaign, and those elements could account for its predicted opening.

	Opening Weekend	Current Gross	Facebook Likes	Tweets
Logan	N/A	N/A	10,561,127	145,966
Get Out	$33.3m	$46.2m	33,728	257,771
The LEGO Batman Movie	$53m	$136.2m	N/A	28,859
The Shack	N/A	N/A	207,549	5,465
John Wick: Chapter 2	$30.4m	$77.4m	21,606	40,671

Meanwhile, mainstays Get Out and The LEGO Batman Movie should continue to do well over the weekend. Jordan Peele’s horror movie and directorial debut Get Out, now at 99 percent on Rotten Tomatoes after one lone rotten review, is expected to drop between 35 and 40 percent, landing somewhere in the low $20 million range. However, excellent word-of-mouth and the ability at horror movies have to do well at the box office makes it likely that the film will drop less than more — it’s also expanding its theater count, which typically doesn’t hurt. Made for a mere $4.5 million, the film will likely cross $60 million this weekend, helping it perform just under M. Night Shyamalan’s Split and take in an incredible profit.

Warner Bros. Animation

The LEGO Batman Movie, on the other hand, continues to underperform against The LEGO Batman, which was still at the $20 million mark in its fourth weekend, but given the movie is already to $230 million worldwide, that’s not too bad. It’s still more than $100 million away from The LEGO Movie‘s domestic total and it won’t ever reach that, or even come close, but LEGO Batman is also still a certified success. Critics like the film — in fact, they like most of the top films right now, as only one expected to be in the top five this weekend doesn’t have a 90+ score on Rotten Tomatoes — and so do fans and that’s a win-win combination.

	Rotten Tomatoes		IMDb	Metacritic
	Critics	Users	Stars
Logan	94	N/A	8.9	75
Get Out	99	89	8.3	83
The LEGO Batman Movie	91	84	7.7	75
The Shack	18	N/A	5.9	N/A
John Wick: Chapter 2	90	90	8.2	75

Speaking of the one not-so-well reviewed movie, that would be The Shack, the Christian movie co-starring Sam Worthington and Octavia Spencer. Here’s the thing about movies like these: there is an audience for them. They just don’t happen to be a very big audience. This one might do a little better because it’s based on the bestselling novel of the same name by William P. Young and it boasts some decent stars but at the end of the day, movies like this just aren’t destined to do well. Similar movies like War Room, Do You Believe?, Miracles from Heaven made anywhere from $3.5 to $14 million in their opening weekends.

Bringing up the rear should be John Wick: Chapter 2, making one last outing into the top five in its fourth weekend before it drops off. Overall, it’s near to $130 million worldwide and should see a final domestic total in the $80-90 million range, lightyears ahead of the first film, which finished its domestic total at $43 million. Also opening this weekend in wide release is Before I Fall, the young adult film expected to make between $3 and $4 million, and the Anna Kendrick-led dramedy Table 19, opening in limited release. Plus, despite being available on home video, Best Picture winner Moonlight is also set to make its return to theaters this weekend.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets and Likes represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor