4-Day Holiday Weekend Forecast
|Film||Weekend||Opening Weekend||Current Gross|
|The LEGO Batman Movie||$42.7m||$53m||$107.3m|
|Fifty Shades Darker||$22.6m||$46.6m||$91.3m|
|The Great Wall||$21.5m||$21.5m||$21.5m|
|John Wick: Chapter 2||$18.9m||$30.4m||$61.1m|
Presidents’ Day weekend brought both expected results and surprises to the four-day box office weekend. The LEGO Batman Movie, as predicted, came out on top with ease, but it was The Great Wall‘s topping of all the new movies that surprised the most. Typically, being the third film of the weekend wouldn’t be much to write home about, but that changes when a film that was expected to bomb does better — $6 million better. And the film that was supposed to do better is the one to flop instead. Overall, the weekend did far less than last year’s holiday weekend, adding to this year’s continued slow progress compared to last year’s. At the moment, 2017 is doing ten percent less than 2016, something that the studios are definitely hoping to change as the year continues.
For Warner Bros., The LEGO Batman Movie brings in more success, topping $100 million domestically and nearly reaching $180 million worldwide. It’s still $35 million behind the first LEGO Movie from 2014, whose second weekend was also Presidents’ Day, and at this point it doesn’t seem likely that the Caped Crusader will top, or even reach, The LEGO Movie‘s domestical total of $257 million or its worldwide total of $469 million. Of course, this doesn’t mean LEGO Batman is in any way a failure — after all, it’s still already made $100 million beyond its budget, simply that it’s not able to recreate the unexpected success of the first film. Between the appeal of Batman and The LEGO Movie franchise, there were expectations of this film to perform better but as it clearly is not, while nothing too earth-shattering, is certainly a fact of which to take note.
Warner Bros. Animation
Things continued to go as predicted with the next film, another sequel, this time to 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey. However, when context is taken into account, Fifty Shades Darker performed, in some ways, better than LEGO Batman. Of course, it made $20 million less than the film in first place, but it’s also performing relatively well in comparison to its predecessor. Fifty Shades of Grey was already at $129 million by its second weekend, while Darker is only to $91 million, but Darker also only dropped 56.5 percent, while Grey had dropped 74 percent from its first to its second weekend. Like the following film, Darker is performing exceptionally well overseas, already to a worldwide total of $278 million, but like LEGO Batman, it’s unlikely Darker will be able to reach Grey‘s worldwide total of $571 million.
So what is this following film performing so well in the international markets? The aforementioned Matt Damon starring action/fantasy flick The Great Wall. While it was expected to flop over the weekend, instead it performed well enough to land in third place and made a — relatively — impressive $21.5 million. On a $150 million budget, this looks bad, even with a better-than-expected performance. However, just like the film before it, The Great Wall has been exceptional overseas. Internationally, it’s already made $244 million for a global total of $266 million. With that information in mind, this film is doing just fine for itself and it was always expected to do better outside of the United States.
The final two films underperformed — one only slightly and the other by a vast amount. The John Wick sequel came in just shy of $20 million, which is what it was expected to do but is still performing quite well all things considered. Unlike the other two sequels/spinoffs in the top five, John Wick: Chapter 2 is actually performing better than its predecessor. Where the first John Wick, which came out in 2014, made $43 million in its domestic total, the sequel is already at $61.1 million in just its second weekend. It also looks like the sequel will perform better abroad too and globally, the sequel is almost to $100 million, where the first film only cracked $88 million worldwide.
Finally, another newcomer took the fifth spot, when it had been predicted it would fall somewhere in the middle. The Charlie Day-Ice Cube comedy Fist Fight made only $14 million over the course of four days, which is several million less than it was supposed to make. It’s now looking at a $30-35 million domestic total by the time it finishes its theatrical run, certainly not ideal for a film with a $20+ million budget. Expect to see this film drop more and more going forward.
The rest of the top ten over the weekend included mainstays Hidden Figures, A Dog’s Purpose, Split, La La Land, and Lion. The biggest takeaways from these five continue to be Figures and La La Land, the former of which is now at $144 million domestically while the latter has impressively made $340 million worldwide. If La La Land wins Best Picture this weekend at the Oscars, as it’s expected to, it will be the highest worldwide grossing Best Picture winner since 2012’s The King’s Speech.
(Source: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed.)
Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor