Alcon Entertainment / Warner Bros.
Based on Friday estimates, things aren’t looking good for Warner’s Blade Runner 2049 to come anywhere close to the $50 million projections the movie was getting from tracking and ticket pre-sales. In fact, it’s likely to end up below even the lowest projections and predictions for the movie, as it disappoints with a lower than expected opening weekend.
Going into the weekend with very positive reviews, Blade Runner 2049 was faring dexently when it made $4 million in Thursday previews, which was slightly higher than 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road’s $3.7 mill. previews but less than Alien: Covenant‘s $4.2 mill. Even so, Friday’s opening day est. of $12.7 mill is already below Mad Max’s $16 mill. opening so it’s doubtful it will be able to match that comparable movie’s $45.4 mill. opening. In fact, based on that number, Blade Runner 2049 is unlikely to not even make $35 mill. this weekend and possibly even less. Basically, it’s Minority Report all over again as the Steven Spielberg-Tom Cruise sci-fi movie, also based on a Philip K. Dick story, failed to bring people into theaters.
The other two new wide releases were faring decently if not spectacularly with both My Little Pony: The Movie and The Mountain Between Us looking to make around $10 million for the weekend. The animated My Little Pony feature brought in less than $3 mill. on Friday, but it should be able to take advantage of the Columbus Day holiday Monday to push for $10 million.
By comparison, the Kate Winslet-Idris Elba survival drama brought in an estimated $3.5 million on Friday, which is pointing to an opening just above $10 million, which could put it in second place for the weekend.
All three movies received “A-” CinemaScores, which is rare but should point to solid word-of-mouth for all three movies.
You’ll definitely want to keep an eye on Focus Features’ Victoria & Abdul this weekend as it did very well on Friday with $1.2 million in 732 theaters and is likely to end up with just below $4 mill. for the weekend, a nice push into the top 10.
Check back on Monday morning for the full weekend box office report.
Edward Douglas | East Coast Editor