The big winner of the night was clearly Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri with four big wins, but Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water and Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird also received love from the Globes with two awards each. I, Tonya, Darkest Hour and The Disaster Artist each received a single acting award.
A couple other notable movies received multiple nominations but didn’t win a single Golden Globe, and that’s a fairly short list that includes Jordan Peele’s Get Out, Steven Spielberg’s The Post, Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk and Luca Guadagnino’s Call Me By Your Name. Sean Baker’s The Florida Project and PT Anderson’s Phantom Thread each received just a single nomination for actors Willem Dafoe and Daniel Day Lewis, respectively.
On the surface, this seems to change the entire landscape leading up to the Oscars, but in fact, being honored by the HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) sometimes hurts a winning film’s chances at going on to win Best Picture.
Last year, Moonlight won the Globes’ Best Picture – Drama award and also won the Oscar for Best Picture. The HFPA has picked a number of other recent Oscar winners like 12 Years a Slave and Argo, as well. The Artist is one of the few recent Golden Globe comedy/musical winners to also win Best Picture at the Oscars,and before that, there was Chicago almost ten years earlier.
If nothing else, the wins for Three Billboards is going to insure that Oscar members watch Martin McDonagh’s movie and maybe they’ll probably like it enough to nominate it for Best Picture. The wins by Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird and Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water should also help those movies find more viewers. Maybe Oscar voters will like those movies as much as the HFPA, maybe they won’t.
But don’t count out The Post, Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk and especially Get Out from still being players at the Oscars. Remember that the HFPA and Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are two very different groups–one being journalists, the other being those in the industry who actually make movies.
For every Globe winner that went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, there’s two or even three movies that were only nominated for Best Picture.
The fact that neither Get Out nor Call Me By Your Name received directing and screenplay nominations already made it evident neither movie had as much support among the HFPA as Three Billboards, The Shape of Water and Lady Bird.
There’s also that very important factor of many people (including director Jordan Peele) felt that Get Out didn’t belong in the comedy/musical category in the first place. Peele’s vocal protests may have hurt Get Out‘s chances with the Golden Globes, but that won’t be the case at the Oscars where films aren’t separated into categories by genre or tone.
Dunkirk is the type of movie that is almost guaranteed to get support from the Oscar’s technical branches and filmmakers who can understand and appreciate what Christopher Nolan achieved.
The Post also received multiple nominations and one would think that a group of journalists would appreciate a movie about journalism, but there can only be one winner for Best Film, and the HFPA chose Three Billboards. Sorry, Steven.
Call Me By Your Name might have a tougher time because it’s a smaller and lower profile movie than some of the others, and it really could have used some early support to get people to watch the movie. The movie still has enough fans that it’s likely to get a number of nominations, although winning Best Picture might now be further away in the distant horizon.
All four of the Golden Globe shut-outs mentioned above already received nominations from the Producers Guild (PGA) and that’s a far more important and weighted factor in showing what movies the industry is supporting.
On top of that, when popular movie favorites get shut-out at the Globes, it just means that Oscar voters (and the movie’s studios) will have to work a little harder to push the movies they love that didn’t receive Golden Globe attention.
Edward Douglas | East Coast Editor