YOUR COMPLETE JULY 4TH WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (07.01.15)
05-DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND PREDICTIONS
Terminator Genisys |
$49.5 million |
|
Magic Mike XXL |
$46 million |
|
Inside Out |
$38.8 million |
|
Jurassic World |
$36.3 million |
|
Ted 2 |
$18.1 million |
Can Terminator Genisys keep Jurassic World from a 4th weekend at number one? Or, if not, can Magic Mike XXL? Can Inside Out finally overtake the dinosaurs? The box office will be fairly conservative this go around, thanks to July 4th falling on a Saturday, so more moviegoers will be at beaches and barbecues than in theaters.
Terminator Genisys hasn’t been doing favorably in early reviews, but Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to the franchise shouldn’t hurt. Magic Mike outsold Genisys last night in preview showings by an estimated $100 thousand, and Warner Bros. is hoping the stripper sequel will pull in anyone who’s not a straight male, i.e.: Pitch Perfect 2‘s monster crowd, who haven’t quite been catered to since. Pitch Perfect 2 opened with an impressive $69 million, but it was also far more family friendly with a PG-13 rating.
The original Magic Mike bowed in 2012 with a modest $19.4 million, but went on to gross $113.7 million in its run and become something of a cult classic. Though director Steven Soderbergh and supporting actor Matthew McConaughey didn’t return for the sequel, buzz hasn’t lessened, and the marketing’s been widespread and hilariously on-point. Social media interest has only risen since last night’s showings for Magic Mike, in contrast to Genisys, who didn’t see a similar boost.
Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
Terminator Genisys |
N/A | N/A | 1,259,869 | 43,961 |
Magic Mike XXL | N/A | N/A | 1,945,806 | 38,695 |
Inside Out | $90.440 million | $200.844 million | 377,551 | 60,876 |
Jurassic World | $208.806 million | $514.374 million | 7,273,608 | 400,416 |
Ted 2 | $33.508 million | 41.030 million | 21,824,486 | 33,678 |
Inside Out will finally surpass Jurassic World, seeing less of a drop, since Jurassic is getting direct action competition from Genisys, and even being ousted in IMAX. Ted 2 will drop a sizable percentage but hang in there, its only comedic competition being Magic Mike. Jurassic World and Inside Out will still bring families out in droves, though. Even nostalgia-driven parents seem to be shying away from Terminator Genisys in favor of the former top dogs, no doubt thanks to subpar reviews and the generally disliked 4th entry in the series: Terminator Salvation.
Salvation opened over Memorial Day weekend in 2009 to a 3-day $42.6 million, settling between 1991’s Terminator 2: Judgement Day at $31.8 million and 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines at $44 million. Genisys director Alan Taylor’s last foray Thor: The Dark World pulled in $85.7 million opening in 2013. However, it was the only opener with little competition at the box office, and it benefited immensely from being a Marvel title. Though Genisys is doing poorly with critics, audiences so far seem to like it, and it’s tracking higher and higher the closer we get to the weekend.
|
|
|
||||
Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||||
Critics | Users | # of Ratings | Stars | # of Ratings | ||
Terminator Genisys | 25 | 72 | 52,835 | 7.3 | 7,807 | 39 |
Magic Mike XXL | 58 | 76 | 17,401 | 6.1 | 274 | 60 |
Inside Out | 98 | 92 | 63,562 | 8.8 | 33,563 | 93 |
Jurassic World | 71 | 83 | 167,233 | 7.5 | 153,568 | 59 |
Ted 2 | 48 | 69 | 39,332 | 7.1 | 7,680 | 49 |
In limited release this weekend is British sci-fi showing Robot Overlords, as well as faith-based road trip movie Faith of Our Fathers. The low-budget Robot Overlords debuted 3 months ago in the UK to mostly positive reviews and is bolstered by Gillian Anderson and Ben Kingsley’s roles. Jackie & Ryan, a romantic drama starring Ben Barnes and Katherine Heigl, opens in limited release and is also available on demand. This will mark Heigl’s first outing into film since her return to TV with State of Affairs (and it’s subsequent cancellation).
(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
Parker Mills | Contributor