Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (01.19.17)

	Split	$22 million
	xXx: The Return of Xander Cage	$19 million
	Hidden Figures	$16.4 million
	La La Land	$11 million
	Sing	$8.5 million

After two weeks of being on top, Hidden Figures is about to be dethroned this weekend. At least, that’s what all the projections are saying but we know the box office has been more than a little unpredictable lately. Instead, newcomers Split and xXx: The Return of Xander Cage are preparing to duke it out for the top spot, finally bringing some fresh blood into this whole shebang. They’re both tracking to bring in amounts in the $20 million range, but given how well mainstays like Hidden Figures and La La Land do, those numbers could be slightly smaller. As it is, Split will likely be able to edge out xXx as the top film of the weekend.

Universal Pictures

Starring James McAvoy and The Witch’s Anya Taylor-Joy, Split is the latest thriller from renowned filmmaker M. Night Shyamalan. After getting back into people’s good graces (for the most part) with 2015’s The Visit, there’s been positive buzz around Split (for the most part), which follows Kevin (McAvoy) with multiple identities who kidnaps three girls, including Taylor-Joy’s character. The film also has a strong marketing campaign around it — there are few people who don’t know anything about this film, given the amount of trailers and billboards around for it. And as we’ve seen time and time again, horror and thriller films do remarkably well at the box office. Sure, some fans might be too jaded by Shyamalan to check out this new flick, but others are excited for his comeback, or like to see his films ironically, or don’t even care and just want a scary night out. As it is, all these elements should be enough to propel Split to the top.

	Opening Weekend	Current Gross	Facebook Likes	Tweets
Split	N/A	N/A	258,525	9,267
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage	N/A	N/A	1,152,542	28,282
Hidden Figures	$515,499	$66.166 million	49,864	140,487
La La Land	$881,104	$80.137 million	75,126	265,258
Sing	$35.258 million	$239.786 million	20,407	N/A

The next film is the third installment in the XXX franchise and it could go in a few different directions. On the one hand, the first film opened with $44.5 million but the follow-up, subtitled State of the Union, only opened with $12.7 million. Granted, lead star Vin Diesel appeared in the first film but not the second and is making a comeback in this newest iteration, which could pique fans’ interests again. Still, the las XXX film was 12 years ago and it’s not as though many people have been clamoring for it to come back. Its marketing has been largely minimal, especially compared to something like Split or even a film like La La Land, which has been out for some time now. It is projected to cross $20 million, but there’s likely a good chance it could fall short of that as well — unless moviegoers are really aching for Diesel and an action film.

Paramount Pictures

The aforementioned Hidden Figures and La La Land are expected to fall somewhere in the middle, though both could climb a bit higher given how many people continue to talk about them. Both films are the most consistent and generous performers of the box office in recent weeks and there’s no big reason for that to change. They should both fall less than 50 percent after their 4-day intakes last weekend, bringing their totals close to $100 million, which is not a bad look given their relatively small budgets (both in the $30 million range). They’re both also expanding their theater count — not by much, but enough to bring in some good sales given how well they’ve been doing so far. La La Land, which is the current frontrunner for Best Picture, has already made more than recent winners like Spotlight, Birdman, and The Artist, helping the Academy reach larger and more populist swaths of audiences. Figures, meanwhile, helps to further the notion that well-told stories can universally succeed, regardless of audience makeup.

	Rotten Tomatoes		IMDb	Metacritic
	Critics	Users	Stars
Split	79	N/A	7.5	76
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage	47	N/A	5.5	N/A
Hidden Figures	92	94	8.1	74
La La Land	93	88	8.7	93
Sing	70	75	7.3	59

The fifth and final film could go to a number of titles — mainstays like Sing and Rogue One, or even Patriots Day, which, despite not doing well last weekend, could perform better this weekend provided it doesn’t drop too much. Still, my money’s on Sing as animated films, like horror films, tend to be box office breakouts. It’s been performing very well so far — even beating Rogue One — and has crossed $400 million worldwide. With its consistent track record, it won’t be a surprise to see it drop perhaps even less than 50 percent.

Meanwhile, the two other films officially opening this weekend, The Founder starring Michael Keaton and the little-heard-of The Resurrection of Gavin Stone, are only expected to make between $1 and $2 million, meaning it will be difficult for them to even break into the top ten, which will instead be populated by films that have been around for weeks now. As it stands, we’re at least getting new films into the fray.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets and Likes represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor