Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (01.26.17)
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Split |
$20 million |
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A Dog’s Purpose |
$16 million |
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Resident Evil: The Final Chapter |
$13.7 million |
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Hidden Figures |
$11 million |
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xXx: The Return of Xander Cage |
$10.2 million |
In any other circumstances, the new film A Dog’s Purpose, a very appropriate January release if I ever saw one, would come out on top of the box office this weekend. However, a controversy surrounding the film since last week has ruined the film’s chance, instead paving the way for M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller Split to maintain its top position for one more week.
But it’s not all on the controversy because that would be taking away from Split’s independent success. Many have called it a return to form for Shyamalan and regardless of personal opinion on the film, the fact of the matter is that it performed far more tremendously that many people predicted and has been earning generally favorable reviews from critics and audiences alike. So it was bound to do well in its second weekend, either in the top or second position, but it now simply has an easier job of remaining the number one film. However, the most impressive aspect of Split‘s story is that for a film with a $9 million budget, as it gets closer and closer to approaching $100 million worldwide (after this weekend, it should surpass $75 million at least), it will become a highly profitable film in its own right. Shyamalan’s last film, The Visit, which also earned mostly positive reviews, was $1.5 million away from $100 million, so if Split is able to accomplish that feat, it will certainly be a win.
Following in the wake of Split will be the aforementioned controversial flick A Dog’s Purpose. There’s been plenty of discussion surrounding the controversy (alleged animal abuse, with a video released under suspect circumstances) and whether or not it’s as bad as it seems. However, what really matters is that the film has already been affected by the scandal. Its premiere was canceled and PETA is planning on protesting the film this weekend and where it was originally expected to make around $27 million, it’s now projected in the mid to high teens. It also doesn’t help that the film isn’t receiving good reviews (it currently has a 32 percent on Rotten Tomatoes). Still, for people who aren’t aware of the controversy, or have differing thoughts from PETA, or simply crave a film which stars numerous adorable pups and is a good escape from the world, the film should still perform somewhat well. But nowhere as near as it could have.
Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
Split | $40m | $49.1m | 48,796 | 128,869 |
A Dog’s Purpose | N/A | N/A | 245,493 | 13,667 |
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter | N/A | N/A | 10,625,694 | 10,823 |
Hidden Figures | $515,499 | $88.4m | 19,441 | 70,029 |
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage | $20.1m | $24.3m | 117,063 | 33,216 |
Another new film is set to take the third spot: the sixth and, presumably, final installment in the Resident Evil franchise, aptly sub-titled The Final Chapter. Predicted to make between $12 and $15 million, if it does fall into that range, it will be the lowest opening for the franchise, which isn’t necessarily surprising given the franchise has been around since 2002 and the last film came out five years ago. Interest tends to wane after so much time has passed. The last film before this new one, Retribution, had the second-lowest opening of the franchise, following the very first film, and it’s an indicator that the franchise is coming to a slow halt, especially if this newest film performs as low as it’s expected to. Still, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be a poor performance within its own context and with a $40 million budget, it could very well turn something of a profit, especially given how well these films tends to do in the international markets, with a few of them even surpassing $200 million or close to it. So while it likely won’t do well Stateside, it will be another story overseas.
The home run of the last several weeks, Hidden Figures, should continue to perform well this weekend. Well enough to finally cross $100 million? That remains to be seen — it looks like it could get very close — but it won’t change the success story surrounding this film, and rightfully so. What will absolutely help the film is its numerous Oscar nominations, including for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay. That could elevate the film and help it perform even better than expected and definitely get it over that $100 million hump.
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Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||
Critics | Users | Stars | ||
Split | 74 | 83 | 7.6 | 62 |
A Dog’s Purpose | 32 | N/A | 1.2 | 40 |
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter | 38 | N/A | 6.8 | N/A |
Hidden Figures | 93 | 94 | 8.0 | 74 |
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage | 44 | 51 | 5.6 | 41 |
Finally, after coming in second last weekend, the third XXX film is set to drop into the fifth spot this weekend, after performing okay in its opening weekend. The fifty percent drop is typical for a film like this and even better than the fifty-six percent drop the second film suffered when it came out in 2005. Return of Xander Cage certainly isn’t making any big splashes and so it’s likely to start its quick fade — from the box office and people’s awareness altogether.
Another newcomer film, Gold starring Matthew McConaughey, is expected to make a small entrance this weekend when it opens in just over 2,100 theaters. Projected to make between $4 and $5 million, it’s not likely to make any big headlines. The rest of the films for the weekend will be mainstays, as per usual, but the real story is really about A Dog’s Purpose and how it does.
(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets and Likes represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor