YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (05.28.15)

WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

	San Andreas	$38 million
	Pitch Perfect 2	$16.9 million
	Tomorrowland	$14.8 million
	Mad Max: Fury Road	$13.6 million
	Poltergeist	$11.3 million

Not going to lie, this weekend’s been a little difficult to predict. Since the 4-day Memorial Day weekend was down this year, box office could pick up this weekend thanks to San Andreas opening. Aloha‘s opening as well, but it might as well say goodbye now.

San Andreas is tracking higher than Tomorrowland was last week, but its still a little sluggish on social media. Nothing compared to Aloha‘s subpar Facebook likes, but still not as strong a showing as what’s already in theaters (or what’s upcoming). Neither opener is even close to hitting the top 20 for overall tweets, for instance. San Andreas is the first big budget, original disaster flick in awhile, though, and it might surprise us. Pacific Rim pulled in $37 million, and the buzz around San Andreas is looking to top that, almost solely thanks to The Rock. Pre-release tickets sales have been higher than his previous action-adventure forays Hercules and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.

	Opening Weekend	Current Gross	Facebook Likes	Tweets
San Andreas	N/A	N/A	473,625	12,218
Pitch Perfect 2	$69.216 million	$128.606	5,319,694	137,645
Tomorrowland	$33.028 million*	$45.592 million	170,611	85,323
Mad Max: Fury Road	$45.428 million	$97.773 million	966,469	103,364
Poltergeist	$22.620 million*	$28.115 million	476,061	165,850

^{*represents 3-day weekend}

Tomorrowland will fall hard and fast thanks to San Andreas taking over, and I honestly don’t think it can compete with Pitch Perfect 2. Straight out of the gate Tomorrowland only edged out the female-driven comedy by $2.2 million over the 3-day Memorial Day weekend, and Pitch Perfect has proven its staying power. Mad Max: Fury Road has been gaining some speed in weekday numbers, thanks to its unparalleled stellar reviews. Even if it falls another 45% this weekend, it could still beat out Poltergeist and Aloha.

	Rotten Tomatoes			IMDb		Metacritic
	Critics	Users	# of Ratings	Stars	# of Ratings
San Andreas	51	N/A	60	6.5	1377	43
Pitch Perfect 2	67	75	60,522	7.2	17,730	63
Tomorrowland	50	60	65,925	6.9	16,210	60
Mad Max: Fury Road	98	91	64,015	8.7	125,830	89
Poltergeist	32	31	27,638	5.3	5,132	47

Poltergeist will see one more strong weekend before Insidious: Chapter 3 drops Thursday, June 4th. It performed solidly despite apathetic reviews, and even with a 50% drop it could still rake in over $11 million from horror fans. Avengers: Age of Ultron, which has made just under $1.3 billion worldwide at this point, will clock in just behind with approximately $10.8 million.

This leaves Aloha at an underwhelming 6th place its opening weekend with around $10 million. Sure it has star power (in droves), but it’s underperforming in early reviews. What’s more, it’s only tracking remotely high with women over 45. The Age of Adaline made $13 million its opening weekend, but it had the support of the under-45 female crowd that Aloha sorely lacks, and it was also the only opener in the top 10 for April 24th-26th. Aloha‘s trailing with only 5,290 tweets this week and 36,533 total likes on Facebook.

Mystery-thriller Survivor, starring Milla Jovovich and Pierce Brosnan, drops this week on the indie circuit. So far it’s got a stunning 0% on Rotten Tomatoes with 10 critic reviews. Survivor will be released on VOD as well, which might help regardless of its lackluster ratings.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

Parker Mills | Contributor