YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (06.16.16)
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Finding Dory |
$105 million |
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Central Intelligence |
$31 million |
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The Conjuring 2 |
$20.2 million |
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Now You See Me 2 |
$13.4 million |
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Warcraft |
$9.7 million |
Back in 2003, Finding Nemo was the highest opening Disney-Pixar had ever seen. And though the best opening has since been taken over by Toy Story 3 in 2010, Nemo is still the third highest grossing film in their repertoire. Early estimates are putting Dory between the two, though some outsize projections have it beating out TS3. Last out from the animation studio was The Good Dinosaur, opening to a relatively low $39.2 million last November, though Inside Out did bow this time last year to $90.4 million and went on to gross $356.5 million in its 25 week run. Nemo debuted 13 years ago to $70.3 million, earning $380.8 million domestic and $936.7 million worldwide. Now, for some studios, that over-a-decade gap could be troubling, but Pixar’s no stranger to it. Though Toy Story 2 came out only four years after the original, Toy Story 3 was 11 years later, and debuted at $110.3 million. The follow-up to Monsters, Inc., Monsters University saw theaters 12 years after its original, and opened to $82.4 million.
Every Pixar follow-up has opened higher than the original, and almost all have gone on to gross more (Cars 2, we’re looking at you). Plus, besides the occasional high (Toy Story 3) or low (The Good Dinosaur) outliers, Pixar openings have mostly built on what came before them, pushing debut numbers higher and higher. If Finding Dory can enjoy the same 10% increase that Inside Out‘s first weekend had over 2013’s Monsters University, then it’s looking at a guaranteed $99 million. But with good word of mouth, widespread marketing, and recent Disney (but not Pixar) animated success Zootopia, Dory‘s likely looking at higher numbers. Though its 94% Rotten Tomatoes score is a bit low for Pixar, clocking it in between Monsters, Inc. and A Bug’s Life, reviews are still overwhelmingly positive. Kids are out of school, and the kids that saw Nemo back in ’03 are either teenagers or fully grown now, making this the kind of four-quadrant success Disney-Pixar banks off of.
Fellow opener Central Intelligence will have no problem securing 2nd place, but some issues fighting against the oceanic-sized Dory. Directed by Rawson Marshall Thurber, Central Intelligence stars Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart and was penned by Thurber and The Mindy Project alums David Stassen and Ike Barinholtz. Thurber saw box office success with We’re the Millers in 2013, earning $150.4 million against a reported $37 million budget. Millers opened to $26.4 million, second place to Elysium, and Intelligence will do the same when faced with Finding Dory. Stars Hart and Johnson are no stranger to sizable openings, with Johnson’s most recent being San Andreas‘s $54.6 million, and Hart’s Ride Along 2 with $35.2 million. Intelligence will definitely veer toward the latter, likely striking somewhere between it and We’re the Millers, coming in just high of $30 million. Of course, there’s always the possibility that Intelligence will surprise thanks to its all-star cast and PG-13 rating, looping in high schoolers on summer break.
Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
Finding Dory | N/A | N/A | 2,191,375 | 397,450 |
Central Intelligence | N/A | N/A | 228,402 | 8,388 |
The Conjuring 2 |
$40.406 million | $53.174 million | 4,231,916 | 521,387 |
NYSM 2 | $22.383 million | $29.979 million | 2,639,977 | 126,836 |
Warcraft | $24.166 million | $29.943 million | 1,851,143 | 29,607 |
Last weekend, The Conjuring 2 proved it had what it takes to keep up with the original The Conjuring. Though it opened $1.4 million shy of the first’s numbers and is currently lagging some $3.4 million behind, Conjuring 2 has been posting solid weekday numbers, helped along by great word of mouth. The original fell 47% in its second showing, and matching that would leave Conjuring 2 around $21 million this weekend. However, the two new openers might tip it a little further down, closer to $20 million for 3rd place. Now You See Me 2 will perform a little sleight of hand to bypass Warcraft in both of their second weekends to catch 4th place. NYSM 2 trailed the fantasy flick by less than $2 million, and will see a much smaller fall. The original NYSM dipped only 35% in its second showing, and in a less crowded box office, the sequel could maybe pull off the same, making just under $15 million. However, with Finding Dory and Central Intelligence in play, NYSM will likely see closer to a 40% fall. Warcraft will see around a 60% drop, leaving it to take under $10 million in 5th. Though its performance has been lackluster in the States, abroad the fantasy epic has grossed $280.5 million.
Sixth place will go to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows in only its third weekend. The sequel has grossed a shockingly low $64 million domestic, and only $57 in foreign markets. Out of the Shadows will fall around 55%, totaling $6.5 million for the weekend. It’s fourth showing will see X-Men Apocalypse dropping at least 50% to gross around $4.9 million in 7th. With any luck, the latest X-Men will sneak past the first in its own reboot series, First Class, to finally best the 2011 film’s domestic take of $146.4 million. In eighth place, Me Before You will fall 50%, leaving it with $4.5 million in its third weekend. The romantic drama has grossed $41 million so far. The Angry Birds Movie crossed the $100 million mark this week, and will take in another $3.9 million this weekend in 9th, seeing a slightly bigger 40% drop thanks to Finding Dory. Alice Through the Looking Glass will round out the Top 10, falling another 50% with $2.8 million. Alice has brought in only $64 million, not even matching the openings of its fellow Disney live action remakes. Internationally, it’s seen moderately more success with a $152.5 million take.
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Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||||
Critics | Users | # of Ratings | Stars | # of Ratings | ||
Finding Dory | 95 | N/A | 77 | 8.7 | 1,412 | 76 |
Central Intelligence | 57 | N/A | 12 | 7.0 | 528 | 48 |
The Conjuring 2 | 76 | 88 | 36,152 | 8.1 | 24,488 | 65 |
NYSM 2 | 34 | 66 | 51,957 | 7.1 | 10,446 | 48 |
Warcraft | 27 | 82 | 43,524 | 7.6 | 66,668 | 32 |
Writer-director Jon Watts’ Clown will see limited release this weekend. Produced by splatter film guru Eli Roth, the film was released in Italy two years ago but will finally see US release thanks to Dimension Films. Watts and cowriter Christopher Ford secured Roth’s involvement thanks to a fake trailer for the film uploaded to Youtube claiming her was producing, which garnered Roth’s interest. The supernatural horror flick tells the story of a father trying to make his son’s birthday the best it can possibly be by dressing in an old clown suit… which refuses to be removed. Clown has seen mixed review so far, and will scare up 100 locations this weekend.
(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
Parker Mills | Contributor