Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (08.04.16)

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Box Office 8.4.16

Suicide Squad

$134 million

Jason Bourne

$25 million

Bad Moms

$12.5 million

Star Trek Beyond

$12 million

The Secret Life of Pets

$10.5 million

Suicide Squad is set to go in the same direction as the DC Extended Universe film that came before it, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. In March, BvS debuted to abysmal reviews, finally settling at a 27 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Before it has even opened domestically, Suicide Squad sits at 28 percent with 149 reviews. But while these reviews are certainly a blow, they won’t stop die-hard fans and those wanting to determine an opinion for themselves from going out to the theater this weekend. Suicide Squad has been tracking for an opening weekend between $125 million and $140 million; it will likely open toward the higher end, though it still won’t see the $166 million opening that BvS had before dropping nearly 70 percent in its second weekend. That will be the true test for Suicide Squad. Once the fans have seen it, who will be left? Certainly not those who have been swayed not to by critics, or had no interest in the first place. BvS didn’t reach the oft-desired $1 billion mark, and now it’s seeming like Suicide Squad also won’t reach those special heights, which leaves Warner Bros. and DC Entertainment with far bigger questions than just box office.

However, what Suicide Squad will get, regardless of reviews (read ours here) or its place in the DCEU’s history, is the biggest domestic August opening weekend in history. Currently held by Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy with a $94 million debut, Suicide Squad will at least have something to brag about. Although it should be noted that the mere existence of Suicide Squad and its fervor owes a lot to Guardians and its surprise success two years ago.

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No other movie will come close to Suicide Squad’s numbers this weekend, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other movies playing. Jason Bourne, fresh off its clear triumph from last weekend, will easily fall into second place and drop by a little more than half. This will be similar to past movies in the franchise, all of which fell between 44 and 55 percent from their first to second weekends. Jason Bourne offers a very different type of action than Suicide Squad and therefore will continue to draw crowds that may opt not to see the wacky DC film (think older audiences). It may not have received the best reviews, but for those who have stuck around with the franchise, they’ll want to see Matt Damon’s return as the titular lead character and it’s a good weekend movie. Box office numbers are starting to pick up a little and Jason Bourne will continue to help with that.

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Moving along, Bad Moms and Star Trek Beyond will be neck and neck this weekend, just as they were the weekend before. However, because Star Trek has been out longer than Bad Moms and because Bad Moms offers something different from the action-adventure of Star Trek, Suicide Squad, and Jason Bourne, the R-rated comedy starring Mila Kunis and Kristen Bell should edge it out just slightly. The Justin Lin-directed sci-fi flick, third in the new Star Trek movie franchise, is dropping by over 600 theaters this weekend, although that shouldn’t have too much effect on its numbers (and it will still end up having slightly more theaters than Bad Moms anyway). Both of these movies will continue to pull decent numbers and increase their totals, but probably not for much longer, which is more problematic for Star Trek Beyond, which is still a little over $10 million away from its budget when its international box office is taken into account. It will need to hang on for at least a few more weeks for Paramount to see the profit it wants — and even then, it won’t be a massive profit, but don’t worry, the studio has already greenlit a fourth film.

Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
Suicide Squad N/A N/A 3,775,359  1,219,925
Jason Bourne $59.215 million $72.202 million 2,608,721 103,616
Bad Moms $23.817 million $30.613 million 321,753 42,512
Star Trek Beyond $59.253 million $113.036 million 3,771,775 34,133
The Secret Life of Pets $104.352 million $303.178 million 2,529,483 25,611

Coming in fifth place is the second animated darling of the summer, The Secret Life of Pets. It may dip into single-digits, but given its strong track record every week it’s been out so far, it has a solid chance of hovering around the $10 million mark and because it’s been such a fighter this summer, I’m going to give it the benefit of the doubt. The film about what pets do when we’re not around is clearly a winner of a concept, and many audiences have been delighted by it. Before the next family movie is released, which will be next week’s remake of Pete’s Dragon from Disney, Pets should be able to see one final hurrah before it’s kicked out of the top five.

Nine Lives

“But there is another family movie coming out,” I hear you say, and it’s true. Nine Lives, which sees Kevin Spacey turned into a cat, should be able to place in sixth spot, but not with spectacular numbers. The film has received derision and skepticism since its first trailer, so even with the star power of Spacey, Jennifer Garner, and Christopher Walken, it’s not set up to perform very well. It will likely take in between $6 and $7 million, but that’s nothing compared to other talking animal movies like this year’s live-action Jungle Book ($103 million opening weekend). It will also be hurt by its tired premise that has been done countless times before, as well as the fact that it’s only opening in 2,264 theaters. So sure, families who have already seen Pets may decide to check out this, but it’s also just as likely they’ll skip the movies this weekend to save some money and wait for Pete’s Dragon next weekend.

     
Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
Suicide Squad 28 N/A 145 7.6 18,411 42
Jason Bourne 56 65 36,705 7.2 27,049 58
Bad Moms 63 77 19,412 6.8 2,377 60
Star Trek Beyond 84 84 51,214 7.5 45,046 68
The Secret Life of Pets 74 66 59,106 6.8 19,480 61

The final four films rounding out the top ten reveal no surprises — they will undoubtedly go to the remaining movies in theaters that have had any sort of box office presence. Those four will be Ghostbusters, Lights Out, Ice Age: Collision Course, and Nerve, finally knocking out mainstays Finding Dory and The Legend of Tarzan after particularly admirable fights to stay in the top ten for as long as possible. All four of these films should see box office intakes in the $4 to $5.5 million range as they all, also, see their theater counts drop by several hundred (or, in the case of Ice Age, by 1,259).

Next week we’ll see Pete’s Dragon open, as well as the Seth Rogen R-rated animated comedy Sausage Party and another period piece from Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins. All three are poised to change up the box office race and finally get some new blood in here.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

 | Associate Editor
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