Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (08.25.16)
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Don’t Breathe |
$17 million |
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Suicide Squad |
$10 million |
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Sausage Party |
$8.3 million |
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Kubo and the Two Strings |
$7.2 million |
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War Dogs |
$7 million |
After three weeks of dominating the box office, Suicide Squad is finally about to be dethroned. As we shake off the disappointing summer blockbuster season, smaller, more genre-focused films are bowing into theaters, including this weekend’s inevitable number one, the horror film Don’t Breathe. From the creator of the Evil Dead remake, Fede Alvarez, the film follows three teens as they break into a blind man’s house to rob home before realizing they picked the wrong man to rob. It has been garnering a lot of attention since it first premiered at South by Southwest in March and currently sports an impressive 89 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Horror films have been making an impression throughout the year, with sequels like The Purge: Election Year and The Conjuring 2 making $31 million and $40 million, respectively, on their opening weekends, and more original films like Lights Out (technically based on the short film of the same name) making $21 million when it debuted. With the buzz around Don’t Breathe and how loyal and avid horror fans can be, it’ll come as no surprise when it makes an impression on this weekend’s box office. Plus, with a budget of $10 million, starting off with a profit is never a bad thing.
However, if it’s not able to crack the $20 million threshold, it will only be the second weekend of the year where none of the films break that mark. This is what happens during this movie lull between the summer blockbuster season and fall/winter awards season. Not to mention Don’t Breathe is being released in the most amount of theaters out of all the new films, and it’s only hitting 2,900 theaters, which is quite shy of most bigger films’ 4,300 theater release. But pre-sale ticket numbers are showing positive results for this film come Monday.
But don’t worry, plenty of blockbusters are here to stick around for a while. Suicide Squad might no longer have claim to the number one spot, but it’ll stick around for a while. In its fourth weekend, it will likely suffer another drop of around 50 percent and dip dangerously low to one digit, thought it should still manage to scrape the $10 million it needs to remain in the double digits field. But its shining moment is long gone and with a respectable, but low,worldwide gross of $582 million so far, it’s time to admit that. Also sticking around this weekend, like a messy jar of jelly, will be Sausage Party. It’s staying strong with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 81 percent and plenty of people still talking about it. It’s been able to stay on Suicide Squad’s tail since its release and that won’t change this weekend, as students head back to school and adults choose between horror, comic villains, and raunchy animated food items.
Also remaining in the top five will be the new animated feature from Laika, Kubo and the Two Strings. Its highly positive reviews are doing wonders for the film and while it has a smaller total gross than War Dogs, which should likely come in fifth place, the power of animated children’s movies should never be underestimated, as we’ve seen time and time again this year. The two movies will be neck and neck throughout the weekend, but I’m going to give the edge to Kubo because it’s a more original film, has much better reviews than the Miles Teller and Jonah Hill comedy, and there’s an increasing lack of family friendly films in theaters right now before a new one hits. While it’s doing less than its other Laika brethren, Kubo still has the chance to reach the $50 million bar that all other Laika films have crossed (and then some). Meanwhile, War Dogs, while continuing to not have much of a strong presence anyway, box office and conversation alike, should still be able to sit in the top five for at least one more week before being knocked out.
Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
Don’t Breathe | N/A | N/A | 185,881 | 28,971 |
Suicide Squad | $133.682 million | $267.255 million | 272,620 | 392,351 |
Sausage Party | $34.263 | $69.548 | 15,492 | 88,896 |
Kubo and the Two Strings | $12.608 million | $16.132 million | 6,931 | 20,764 |
War Dogs | $14.685 million | $19.386 | 5,894 | 35,483 |
There are plenty of other new movies opening this weekend, giving audiences plenty to consider (especially those with easy access to independent cinemas), and they’ll likely help round out the top ten. First up is the sequel Mechanic: Resurrection, which follows the 2011 film The Mechanic, and stars Jason Statham and Jessica Alba. There’s an audience for this film, for sure, but it won’t be a very big one. It’s set to open in just over 2,200 theaters, the second largest opening of the weekend, but will likely only take in around $6 million.
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Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||||
Critics | Users | # of Ratings | Stars | # of Ratings | ||
Don’t Breathe | 89 | N/A | 46 | 8.3 | 1,298 | 69 |
Suicide Squad | 26 | 68 | 111,982 | 6.8 | 177,152 | 40 |
Sausage Party | 81 | 61 | 44,410 | 7.0 | 16,130 | 66 |
Kubo and the Two Strings | 96 | 91 | 14,093 | 8.4 | 3,909 | 83 |
War Dogs | 59 | 74 | 15,370 | 7.3 | 6,420 | 57 |
The other two major openings are much smaller, but not less noteworthy. They’re both opening in a little over 800 theaters and will be able to draw in the so-called cinephiles and more culturally relevant audiences. The first is Southside with You, which has been receiving positive reviews so far, and is a languid, romantic movie about the start of Barack and Michelle Obama’s relationship. The second is one of the many new boxing movies coming out soon. This one is titled Hands of Stone, follows the story of real-life boxer Roberto Durán, and stars the likes of Robert de Niro, Édgar Ramírez, John Turturro, and Usher.
Truly, the big question of the weekend will be whether or not The Secret Life of Pets can hang on for just one more week in the top ten.
(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets and Likes represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor