YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (09.10.15)

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the box office-2

box office

WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

The Visit

$17 million

The Perfect Guy

$15.5 million

War Room

$6.2 million

Straight Outta Compton

$6.1 million

A Walk in the Woods

$4.9 million

The box office is still deep in a post-Straight Outta Compton slump, and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. In a weekend of thriller releases, writer-director M. Night Shyamalan’s The Visit opens alongside The Perfect Guy. Both have enjoyed moderately successful marketing campaigns, though The Visit has more buzz across social media. The newcomers will claim the top 2 spots, simply from a lack of other options at the theater.

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The Visit has a mixed-bag of reviews so far, and there’s been some question as to whether its levity is purposeful, or simply a PR salvaging after the final edit was done. Horror-comedy is a delicate balance at best, and while The Visit could surprise with a nostalgic throwback to 80s fare, Shyamalan’s recent record is cause for concern. His last 2 films have been big, noisy studio affairs that were departures from his horror/thriller roots: After Earth and The Last Airbender. Both films had sizable openings, but not in comparison to their oversize budgets. The Visit is a return to not only horror (not seen since The Happening in 2008), but it also boasts the smallest budget Shyamalan has ever seen. Its lean $5 million is thanks to producer Blumhouse, where staying small can reap big rewards.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
The Visit N/A N/A 650,928  17,276
The Perfect Guy N/A N/A 179,786 10,385
War Room  $11.351 million $29.846 million 632,208 30,012
Straight Outta Compton
$60.200 million $150.524 million 2,489,678 187,646
A Walk in the Woods $8.246 million $13.757 million 32,026 1,772

This time last year, similarly creepy thriller No Good Deed, also from Screen Gems, had a surprising opening of $24.2 million. However, Deed also featured major star power in the form of Taraji P. Henson and Idris Elba, which The Perfect Guy lacks. Tracking highest with women, Guy might have a shot in what’s otherwise been a stereotypically male-dominated wide-release box office lately.

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War Room has been leading the daily box office this week, followed by A Walk in the Woods and, almost neck-and-neck, Straight Outta ComptonWar Room and Compton will see low-30% drops, thanks to word of mouth and continued interest. Walk will see a slightly higher dip of around 40%, putting it in a race for 4th place with Compton.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation will drop out of the top 5, but still pull in just under $5 million in 6th. Rogue Nation has officially crossed $500 million worldwide, and will open in China soon. The Transporter Refueled will take 7th, pulling in $3-4 million. Though its take has been languid domestically, Transporter has reportedly already made $10 million abroad. No EscapeThe Man from U.N.C.L.E., and Sinister 2 will round out the top 10, with Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos fighting Sinister for the 10th spot. Those two, as well as U.N.C.L.E., were painfully close over Labor Day weekend, and likely will continue that trend, all hitting in the low million dollar range.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
The Visit 63 N/A 32 6.9 836 50
The Perfect Guy N/A N/A 6.1 14 N/A
War Room 36 90 8,529 5.7 2,488 26
Straight Outta Compton 90 95 48,596 8.3 33,846 72
A Walk in the Woods  46 61 5,901 6.7 1,346 51

Originally released in Britain as X+YA Brilliant Young Mind will see a limited U.S. release this week. Starring Asa Butterfield as a socially awkward prodigy who competes at the International Mathematics Olympiad, the film is inspired by the documentary Beautiful Young Minds. IFC’s Sleeping with Other People sees limited release as well on Friday. The film stars Jason Sudeikis and Alison Brie as friends who avoid a growing attraction between them, and will see a wider release next week.

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90 Minutes in Heaven, another faith-based showing, has a moderate release this weekend. Based on Don Piper’s autobiographical novel of the same name, the film stars Hayden Christensen as a man who is legally dead for 90 minutes and  claims to have seen heaven when he is brought back to life.

Based on the book of the same title, Wolf Totem opens in limited this Friday. Directed by Jean-Jacques Annaud, Wolf Totem tells the story of a student sent to live with Mongolian nomadic herdsman during China’s Cultural Revolution. Austrian horror flick Goodnight Mommy, hotly anticipated thanks to an endlessly creepy trailer, has limited release this weekend. The film features twins who suspect their heavily bandaged mother who recently underwent surgery is not who they think she is, and take her hostage.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

Parker Mills | Contributor
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