YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (09.17.15)
0WEEKEND PREDICTIONS
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials |
$35 million |
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Black Mass |
$22 million |
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The Perfect Guy |
$16.1 million |
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The Visit |
$14.6 million |
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Everest |
$6 million |
Pre-ticket sales for both Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and fellow opener Black Mass have been close so far, but Scorch Trials will win out simply thanks to better marketing and a wider audience. And Scorch Trials is shaping up to be big, at least in comparison to recent box office numbers. Opening in 21 foreign markets last week with $32.5 million, it’s all set to top that domestically. The first Maze Runner opened just last year with a similar $32.5 domestically, and it went onto a $102.4 million grab, with a worldwide total of $340.8 million. Based off James Dashner’s wildly popular young adult, dystopian trilogy, the events of Scorch Trials immediately follow the first film. Though it’s received mixed reviews, early projections have lauded it above its predecessor’s opening by at least a few million.
Director Scott Cooper’s Black Mass finally opens this weekend, and it’s been seeing solid early reviews. Based off Black Mass: The True Story of an Unholy Alliance Between the FBI and the Irish Mob by Dick Lehr and Gerard O’Neill, Mass tells the story of infamous Irish-American gangster James “Whitey” Bulger. Somewhere under 3.5 hours of prosthetics, Johnny Depp plays Bulger. And, despite some seriously unnerving blue contacts, the heavy makeup is convincing. Depp’s no stranger to crazy transformations for a role of course. He’s taken on several larger-than-life, unrecognizable characters, from Jack Sparrow to the Mad Hatter, but impressive metamorphosis aside, does Mass have the audience the studio thinks it does?
Name a white male actor who’s hot right now— he’s probably in Black Mass. Besides Depp, there’s Joel Edgerton, Benedict Cumberbatch, Kevin Bacon, Peter Sarsgaard, Adam Scott, Corey Stoll, and many, many more. Even Dakota Johnson, fresh off massive hit Fifty Shades of Grey, stars as Bulger’s wife. That said, 1970s alleged FBI informant and Boston crime boss Bulger doesn’t have the kind of notoriety that other gangsters might, especially not overseas.
Most of Depp’s movies fare better internationally. For instance, Depp’s last dramatic lead Transcendence had a less than stellar $10.9 million opening and only grossed $23 million domestically, but it managed to pull in another $80 million internationally. However, Black Mass, much like ill-fated The Rum Diary, is strongly rooted in American culture, and likely won’t have a strong draw overseas. Take, for instance, Depp’s turn as John Dillinger in 2009’s Public Enemies. Enemies opened at $25.3 million and went on to earn $97 million domestically, yet it did make another $117 million overseas. However, Dillinger, the Depression-era bank robber is much more well known than Bulger. Dillinger has also been the subject of numerous films and documentaries, and is somewhat of a folk anti-hero. Bulger, on the other hand, is better known as a murderer and a rat.
Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
Scorch Trials | N/A | N/A | 2,996,265 | 319,310 |
Black Mass | N/A | N/A | 196,403 | 41,645 |
The Perfect Guy | $25.888 million | $30.656 million | 1,584,921 | 42,467 |
The Visit | $25.428 million | $30 million | 236,713 | 36,800 |
Everest | N/A | N/A | 698,520 | N/A |
Even domestically, Black Mass is one of those movies that is heavily discussed… within the industry. Besides a lot of excitement and buzz in Hollywood, the marketing has been rather lacking. Sure, you might’ve seen the long-winded trailer in front of a couple other movies this summer, but not many, and the bus stop ads and billboards have only just started popping up within the last few weeks. With the exception of, maybe, Irish Bostonians, the average moviegoer just isn’t aware this movie exists. A few years ago, just the draw of Johnny Depp would be enough to bring people to the theater, but we’re living in a post-The Lone Ranger world.
Two hotly anticipated, star-power films will see small releases this weekend before expanding to nationwide in the following weeks. Inspired by a true story, Everest occurs during the 1996 Mount Everest disaster. Starring Jason Clarke, Josh Brolin, John Hawkes, Robin Wright, and Jake Gyllenhaal, Everest will be seen in 500+ IMAX locations before its wide open next Friday, September 25th, and its a better contender for 5th place than War Room. Also featuring Josh Brolin, Sicario opens in 6 theaters this Friday. Also starring Emily Blunt and Benicio del Toro, the film is set on the U.S.-Mexico border and follows an idealistic FBI agent tasked to track down a dangerous and anonymous drug lord.
After surprising with a solid $25.9 million opening last weekend, The Perfect Guy will see a small drop of around 35-40% thanks to a lack of competition in its space. Though it’s been panned by critics, audiences are loving it, and that’s really all that matters when it comes to ticket sales. By comparison, The Visit has received surprisingly positive reviews and will probably see a drop of around 40% thanks to a lack of horror competition until next weekend. War Room has posted very minimal losses week-to-week, falling only 16.5% in its second weekend and 18% in its third. Even if its momentum slows with the release of Captive, its loyal audience likely won’t let it fall more than 30% this weekend. This puts it in 6th place, fighting Everest for 5th thanks to its week early IMAX opening.
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Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||||
Critics | Users | # of Ratings | Stars | # of Ratings | ||
Scorch Trials | 48 | N/A | 63 | 7.2 | 6,963 | 39 |
Black Mass | 76 | N/A | 79 | 8.6 | 2,806 | 70 |
The Perfect Guy | 19 | 61 | 11,666 | 5.2 | 985 | 35 |
The Visit | 61 | 65 | 17,413 | 6.9 | 7,207 | 55 |
Everest | 69 | N/A | 68 | 7.7 | 2,805 | 66 |
Opening in around only 1000 theaters, Captive will hit screens as well this weekend. Starring David Oyelowo and Kate Mara, the faith-driven crime thriller hopes to capitalize on the success of recent Christian film War Room, though its received less anticipation from those circles. Said to be more of a thriller with Christian themes, rather than a “Christian film,” Captive has received some early negative reviews for its overuse of such blunt themes, but praise for its acting. It’ll open in the low millions, at least besting last week’s 90 Minutes in Heaven. This gives it a solid shot at the top 10, with older films Straight Outta Compton and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation finally slowing down. Captive could be in contention for a 7th place spot, if it can best Compton and Rogue Nation. A Walk in the Woods will fall around another 25-30%, landing it in 10th place.
Edward Zwick’s Pawn Sacrifice opened in limited yesterday, starring Tobey Maguire, Liev Schreiber, and Peter Sarsgaard. The biographical thriller shows chess genius Bobby Fischer playing his Soviet challenger for the World Championship, both men caught between the two Cold War superpowers. Horror comedy Cooties, starring Elijah Wood, Alison Pill, and Rainn Wilson will show on limited screens as well as VOD platforms this weekend, too. A twist on the zombie genre, Cooties features an elementary school hit with a virus that turns the kids into feral savages. Indian romantic comedy Katti Batti will see limited U.S. release this weekend as well. Billed as an anti-love story, Katti Batti is the tale of a couple who have lived together for 5 years when one of them suddenly leaves.
(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
Parker Mills | Contributor