YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (09.24.15)
0WEEKEND PREDICTIONS
Hotel Transylvania 2 |
$39 million |
|
Everest |
$26 million |
|
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials |
$16.7 million |
|
Black Mass |
$14.2 million |
|
The Intern |
$13 million |
Come this Friday, Hotel Transylvania 2 will be battling it out with Everest, but families will be the driving force behind the former’s weekend win. Not since Minions has there been a wide-release animated family movie, and it’s tracking high, even for a sequel. Both Sony and Adam Sandler hope for a far better turnout than Pixels, which grossed only $76.4 million, and Hotel is primed to scare up some bigger numbers. The original Hotel Transylvania opened with $42.5 million and went on to earn $148.3 million domestically and $358.4 million worldwide. Marketing has been widespread for the animated classic-horror-themed film, and the timing is just right a mere 5 weeks before Halloween. Everest is opening wide after a generous IMAX-only showing last weekend that landed it the 5th box office spot. The film has already grossed $8.7 million and another $28.9 million overseas. Traction’s been slow on social media, but a lack of other adult adventure fare could help significantly when moviegoers are faced with less exciting options.
In its second week out, Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials will post a 45-40% drop, similar to the original last year. The YA dystopic film has more than doubled its domestic take overseas and grossed $118.7 million worldwide, and it’s receiving a lot of attention on social media. Gangster drama Black Mass will fall only around 35-40% thanks to being a straight drama and mostly positive reviews. Mass has been leading the daily box office since Sunday, and it’ll be in a close race with Scorch Trials for 3rd this week. Mass doesn’t only face competition from Trials either, but a possible upset from newcomer The Intern, starring Robert De Niro and Anne Hathaway. Director Nancy Meyers has traditionally enjoyed strong openings, like It’s Complicated with $22.1 million and her highest What Women Want with $33.6 million. A lack of comedic female-led films could play in The Intern’s favor, as it’s the only light-hearted film in theaters, at least for an adult audience.
Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
Hotel Transylvania 2 |
N/A | N/A | 9,356,129 | 67,640 |
Everest | $7.222 million* | $9.380 million | 205,068 | 20,774 |
Scorch Trials | $30.317 million | $36.245 million | 3,160,407 | 420,146 |
Black Mass | $22.635 million | $29.456 million | 218,697 | 86,898 |
The Intern | N/A | N/A | 254,731 | 5,509 |
*limited release
The Visit hasn’t quite worn out its welcome yet, and even with a 50% drop, it could still steal 6th place with around $6 million in its 3rd weekend. Fellow genre movie The Green Inferno also opens this week, telling the story of a group of well-meaning American students at the mercy of a cannibal tribe in Chile. Eli Roth’s long-awaited throwback horror flick promises to continue his reign as “torture porn” king. Roth’s biggest film to date is Hostel which opened at $19.6 million in 2006 and grossed $47.3 million in its lifetime. Roth hasn’t had a movie in theaters since 2007’s Hostel Part II, and though there’s a lack of horror fare (for now), negative word of mouth and the promise of copious gore will hurt its chances at making more than low mid-single digits.
Rounding out the wide releases, Pawn Sacrifice, starring Tobey Maguire as infamous chess legend Bobby Fischer, opens nationwide this week. Sacrifice drew in $202 thousand last weekend in 33 theaters, and is bolstered by positive word of mouth. It’ll be fighting for a spot in the top 10, likely in competition with The Perfect Guy, which will draw in just under $5 million with a 50% drop, potentially putting it in Sacrifice‘s way and battling with Inferno for 7th place. And there’s always the chance that War Room will hold on, as it fell only a scant 20% last weekend. All in all, it’ll be a tight competition for the bottom 5 spots starting Friday.
99 Homes opens in limited release, featuring Andrew Garfield as a father struggling to provide for his family through working for Michael Shannon’s underhanded real estate agent who’s the cause of the family’s troubles. Also starring Laura Dern, the film will have a wide expansion on October 9th. Also in limited is Roland Emmerich’s Stonewall. Telling the story of a young man coming-of-age in the days leading up to the Stonewall Riots, the film has gotten a lot of heat for not only being historical inaccurate, but also for its problematic lack of representation of the full gay community present at the riots. Director Emmerich is better known for large-scale disaster films like Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow, and 2012. What’s truly impressive about Stonewall so far is its current 7% Rotten Tomatoes critic rating, which is somehow lower than Emmerich’s 2008 10,000 B.C.
|
|
|
||||
Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||||
Critics | Users | # of Ratings | Stars | # of Ratings | Score | |
Hotel Transylvania 2 |
29 | N/A | N/A | 7.6 | 355 | 44 |
Everest | 73 | 76 | 24,426 | 7.5 | 15,055 | 64 |
Scorch Trials | 51 | 68 | 42,113 | 7.1 | 19,317 | 43 |
Black Mass | 75 | 78 | 30,121 | 7.9 | 10,790 | 68 |
The Intern | 51 | N/A | 56 | 7.3 | 537 | 50 |
Stacking up the small-scale releases, Labyrinth of Lies joins the fun. The German drama was selected to represent the country for Best Foreign Language Film at the 2016 Oscars, and investigates the troubles of a man in post-WWII Germany whose job it is to expose former concentration camp workers. An earlier period peace, The Keeping Room, opens as well. The film is about three women (two of them sisters and one a slave) fighting to defend their home from rogue Union soldiers at the end of the Civil War.
In an entirely different tone, Mississippi Grind tells the story of an aging gambler on a losing streak who recruits a younger gambler he’s convinced is his new good luck charm. From writer-director team Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck, the film stars Ryan Reynolds and Ben Mendelsohn. Chinese comedy Lost in Hong Kong is in limited release as well. Actor-director Xu Zheng’s directorial debut and first in the series Lost in Thailand grossed over $200 million and set Chinese box office records in 2012. Ashby, the story of a high school student becoming friends with a retired CIA assassin, will see limited release as well as VOD streaming this weekend. Starring Mickey Rourke, Nat Wolff, Sarah Silverman, and Emma Roberts, the film will is being distributed by Paramount.
Drunk Stoned Brilliant Dead: The Story is in limited this weekend, too. The documentary details the National Lampoon magazine and production company’s history, and features Chevy Chase, Beverly D’Angelo, Judd Appatow, and Kevin Bacon. Another documentary, The Reflektor Tapes, opens today instead of Friday. Tapes is an avant-grade chronicle of the tour supporting Arcade Fire’s acclaimed album Reflektor. Critically acclaimed thriller Sicario will still be in a handful of theaters as well, prepping for its nationwide expansion next week.
(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
Parker Mills | Contributor