YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (10.01.15)
0WEEKEND PREDICTIONS
The Martian |
$51 million |
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Hotel Transylvania 2 |
$29 million |
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Sicario |
$16 million |
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The Intern |
$10.6 million |
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Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials |
$8.5 million |
It feels like everyone’s just been waiting for The Martian to open, and inventive advertising has made us even more eager to see Matt Damon’s eternal hopefulness on the big screen this weekend. Based on Andy Weir’s book of the same name (which was incredibly successful in its own right), The Martian features Damon as an astronaut stranded alone on Mars who refuses to give up on the chance of being rescued. The film has an all-star cast even besides Damon, featuring Jessica Chastain, Kristen Wiig, Kate Mara, Jeff Daniels, Michael Peña, and Chiwetel Ejiofor… just to name a few. Released at TIFF to acclaim a few weeks ago, the film was penned by Drew Goddard and directed by sci-fi god Ridley Scott.
Now, this is where it gets tricky. We all love Ridley Scott. We do. He gave us Blade Runner and Alien, as well as Thelma and Louise and Gladiator. But, recently, Scott’s also served up Prometheus and Exodus: Gods and Kings. Both beautiful, big budget, gorgeous movies to be sure, but the heart we’re used to seeing just wasn’t there. That said, we’re all in for The Martian, just like the rest of the world. It promises the grand spectacle alongside an empathetic, individualized story, and it’s bound to open big. Exodus opened with only $24.1 million last December, but less universal subject matter coupled with a poorly timed release hindered it. Prometheus opened at $51 million in 2012, and The Martian casts a wider net to be sure. Similarly-themed stranded-in-space flick Gravity opened to the tune of $55.8 million in 2013, and Fox hopes The Martian can best or beat those numbers. Fellow adaptation Gone Girl opened this time last year to $37.5 million, and the more family-friendly PG-13 rating of The Martian increases its odds of a bigger showing.
Animated family flick Hotel Transylvania 2 will have a strong second weekend after a surprise upset last week when it bested the original by $6 million. Even with around a 40% drop, the monster movie is all set to scare up 2nd place easily. Sicario expands to a nationwide release this Friday, so you’ll finally know what everyone’s raving about. Denis Villeneuve’s theatrical wide follow-up to Prisoners has already grossed $2.7 million in limited over the last 2 weeks, going from 6 theaters in the first to 59 in the second. Prisoners opened with $20.8 million in 2013, and the amazing word of mouth surrounding Sicario should help push it over the $10 million mark at the very least. The Lionsgate film would have had a good chance at a bigger take if not faced off against The Martian, but it should take a quiet, deadly 3rd besides.
Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
The Martian | N/A | N/A | 159,681 | 131,033 |
Hotel Transylvania 2 | $48.464 million | $55.734 million | 9,436,078 | 134,913 |
Sicario | N/A* | $2.869 million | 122,238 | 30,685 |
The Intern | $17.728 million | $23.365 million | N/A | N/A |
Scorch Trials | $30.317 million | $54.874 million | 3,211,889 | 170,332 |
*not in wide release until 10/2
Robert Zemeckis’ The Walk is stealing away all but a handful of Everest‘s IMAX theaters this week in early showings, opening on 448 screens this week in a similar move to Everest last month. Universal’s Everest enjoyed an IMAX-only opening which garnered it $7.2 million in 545 theaters, and Tristar has their fingers crossed for such a win. The Walk stars Joseph Gordon-Levitt as Philippe Petit, the French high-wire extraordinaire who really did walk between the Twin Towers in 1974, 1,350 feet above New York City. Petit himself trained Gordon-Levitt on the hire-wire during filming, though of course at much lower heights. The Walk will expand nationwide on October 9th, and both reviews and word of mouth has been very positive so far. Plus, Zemeckis’ lowest opening in the last 20 years has been 1997’s Contact with a not-too-shabby $20.6 million.
The Intern will luck out by virtue of being the only adult comedy in wide release again, letting it keep the 4th place spot ahead of Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials. Though Scorch Trials is hardly blazing any records domestically, it’s doing alright for itself abroad, where it’s pulled in $129 million, bringing its worldwide total to $183.1 million. Everest will drop off fast when faced with competition from The Martian and Sicario, posting a loss of around 45% in its second wide weekend and granting it 6th place. Newcomer The Walk will be battling both Everest and Black Mass for a 7th place spot. With Black Mass falling some 45% in its 3rd week out, it will make around $6 million and, if The Walk succeeds like Everest did, end up in 8th. The Visit has a solid chance at nabbing 9th place, stealing away another $3-4 million.
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Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||||
Critics | Users | # of Ratings | Stars | # of Ratings | ||
The Martian | 91 | N/A | 116 | 8.5 | 5,978 | 77 |
Hotel Transylvania 2 | 52 | 78 | 67,545 | 7.3 | 2,976 | 44 |
Sicario | 92 | N/A | 131 | 8.0 | 9,460 | 82 |
The Intern | 57 | 79 | 17,149 | 7.5 | 5,779 | 51 |
Scorch Trials | 50 | 65 | 44,734 | 7.0 | 27,502 | 43 |
Freeheld, starring Julianne Moore and Ellen Page, sees limited release this weekend. Based off the documentary of the same name, the film tells the true story of police officer Laurel Hester’s battle to allow her pension benefits to go to her domestic partner after Hester was diagnosed with terminal cancer. In an odd twist, 2010 film Shanghai will finally get a limited U.S. release this weekend. Starring John Cusack, Gong Li, and Ken Watanabe, the 1940s period noir already grossed $15 million overseas 5 years ago, with most of that coming from China and Japan.
Documentary He Named Me Malala will open in a handful of theaters this week. The film tells the story of Malala Yousafzai, a young Pakistani girl who was targeted and shot by Taliban gunmen in 2009 when attempting to go to school. Yousafzai is the youngest ever recipient of a Nobel Prize and has since dedicated her life to being an activist for female education. Distributed by Fox Searchlight in theaters, the film will also be aired by National Geographic in over 40 languages throughout the world.
(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
Parker Mills | Contributor