Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (10.13.16)
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The Accountant |
$15 million |
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Kevin Hart: What Now? |
$14 million |
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The Girl on the Train |
$11.5 million |
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Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children |
$8.4 million |
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Deepwater Horizon |
$6 million |
Ben Affleck has always had a relatively good box office draw for his wide release films and while his latest film, The Accountant, won’t be on the higher end of the spectrum, it should be able to snag first place and earn some decent numbers. It’s projected to make a third of its budget and with the draw of names like Affleck, Anna Kendrick, and J.K. Simmons, as well as being in the popular genre of drama-thriller, there’s definitely a wide audience out there for the film (especially opening in a little over 3,300 theaters). That being said, the film is currently earning mixed reviews from critics, sitting at 47 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and it’s not getting a huge amount of buzz (probably because the marketing for the film has been less than accessible for audiences, many of whom still don’t entirely get what the film is about). It fits the same mold as The Girl on the Train — a thriller that has so-so reviews — but unlike The Girl on the Train, this film doesn’t have the success of Gone Girl to ride (even if it shares an actor). Besides Gone Girl and Affleck’s foray into superheroes, his last films of this nature, Argo and The Town, did $19.5 million and $23.8 million over their opening weekends, respectively. The Accountant will more likely do the business of Affleck’s 2009 political thriller, State of Play.
The next new film opening this weekend in a little over 2,500 theaters is a stand-up comedy film from funny man Kevin Hart. The film is partly footage from his stand-up and partly scripted scenes with actors like Halle Berry and Ed Helms. Out of all the films that will make it into the top five this weekend, believe it or not, this is the one that’s the best reviewed. Hart has proven his comedic chops over the years as well as being a fan-favorite. With a budget a little under $10 million, very high for a stand-up comedy film, it should be able to prove itself a solid success over the coming weeks. There’s a built-in audiences both for Hart himself and for comedy films of this nature, and they’ll loyally show up this weekend to enjoy some much-needed laughs in the country’s current cultural climate.
Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
The Accountant | N/A | N/A | 97,022 | 9,441 |
Kevin Hart: What Now? | N/A | N/A | 69,883 | 2,235 |
The Girl on the Train | $24.536 million | $32.732 million | 19,371 | 45,959 |
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children | $28.871 million | $56.075 million | 42,066 | 32,343 |
Deepwater Horizon | $20.223 million | $42.166 million | N/A | 14,190 |
Even with middling reviews and The Accountant as competition, there are still people who haven’t seen The Girl on the Train and want to. It’s projected to drop around 50 percent in its second week, which will seem like a steep drop but the film is already at $50 million worldwide on a $45 million budget and should start to make a profit soon. Still, it’s not bound to be a massive profit, certainly not like Gone Girl, which when all was said and done made $369 million worldwide on a $61 million. It’s clear reviews are hurting The Girl on the Train, but only time will tell how much.
Miss Peregrine, meanwhile, is decidedly not a disappointment in any way. It’s so far made $56 million domestically and $155 million total, which is good, if not great, on a $110 million budget. But the final line has not been drawn as the film still has some legs and is likely seeking its stretch goal of $200 million at this point. It won’t be the highest grossing film for director Tim Burton, but it’s certainly a return to form at the very least. Still, it’s a quiet success. The film is hardly making any big waves but Fox shouldn’t be too disappointed by that. After all, a success is still a success (especially if it’s a financial success in Hollywood).
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Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||||
Critics | Users | # of Ratings | Stars | # of Ratings | ||
The Accountant | 47 | N/A | 79 | 8.3 | 329 | 50 |
Kevin Hart: What Now? | 86 | N/A | 22 | N/A | N/A | 61 |
The Girl on the Train | 43 | 56 | 18,872 | 6.7 | 10,807 | 47 |
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children | 64 | 66 | 22,676 | 7.1 | 19,145 | 57 |
Deepwater Horizon | 83 | 88 | 27,694 | 7.6 | 13,485 | 68 |
Bringing up the rear is the disaster movie Deepwater Horizon, going into its third weekend and expecting to drop a little less than 50 percent once more. Even with relatively good reviews, as it comes to a slow crawl of an end, it’s looking to be unlikely that it will break even with its $110 million budget. So far it’s made $69.8 million worldwide and as it continues to make less and less, even while opening in more theaters, it’s looking like Lionsgate and Summit Entertainment might have a loss on their hands. Mark Wahlberg has a certain draw, but not on his own. His comedies have the added benefit of starring other popular actors, like Will Ferrel, or a fun concept like Ted, while his action movies either has a franchise built into it (Transformers) or a political/national base it can appeal to (Lone Survivor). As it is, not even the likes of Kurt Russell or John Malkovich will be able to save this film.
Rounding out the top ten will be holdovers like The Magnificent Seven and Storks and likely even The Birth of a Nation, which, since its release, has made a little over $9 million. It’s now facing an uphill battle, at least in terms of box office — its award season fate has yet to be revealed.
(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets and Likes represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor