Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (11.10.16)

	Doctor Strange	$42.5 million
	Trolls	$27 million
	Almost Christmas	$17 million
	Arrival	$16.3 million
	Hacksaw Ridge	$8.4 million

This weekend, three new movies open in wide release — only two will make it into the top five, but they’ll fall somewhere in the middle, as juggernauts Doctor Strange and Trolls return to reclaim their first and second positions. For the former, it dominated last weekend, as it was expected to, with an impressive $85 million. Over the week, it’s added almost $20 million to its domestic total and is now at $344 million worldwide, already taking over The Incredible Hulk and poised to take over Captain America: The First Avenger, making it likely that Strange will go down as one of the most successful Marvel films. It will likely drop somewhere around 50 percent or a little more this weekend as these films are wont to do. All the most recent Marvel films, dating back to Guardians of the Galaxy dropped between 55 and 59 percent from the first weekend to the second. Still, all the new releases don’t really pose much of a threat to Strange so it will continue to succeed this weekend — its real competition will come next week in the form of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them.

Marvel Studios

Trolls, as well, will benefit this weekend from a lack of competition. There still aren’t many family films taking any attention away from the DreamWorks film (that will come when Disney’s Moana opens in a couple weeks) and given how well Trolls performed last weekend, it’s poised to do well again this week. Still, while Strange has added nearly $20 million to its domestic total, Trolls has only added $10 million, proving it’s slowing down a bit more quickly. Animated films tend to drop less anyway from week-to-week and the film will still be open in an impressive 4,066 theaters this weekend, which will only hope in its accessibility and breadth in order to keep the money rolling in.

	Opening Weekend	Current Gross	Facebook Likes	Tweets
Doctor Strange	$85.058 million	$103.988 million	192,972	255,122
Trolls	$46.581 million	$56.143	32,517	N/A
Almost Christmas	N/A	N/A	294,724	11,024
Arrival	N/A	N/A	48,545	4,730
Hacksaw Ridge	$15.190 million	$19.907 million	16,974	24,975

The next two films could go either way this weekend and they’re both new releases. Some project Arrival coming out on top by less than one million, other predict it will absolutely dominate Almost Christmas. I will be the first one to admit my predictions could end up being way off (as they’ve been before), but the more palatable appeal of Almost Christmas has me giving it the edge. Some might object to a Christmas film so early (to which I say: fine, more for me) but others might find its gentleness and lighthearted comedic nature something they’re looking for right now. Boo! A Madea Halloween surprised plenty of people with the money it took in in both its first and second weekends and Almost Christmas might be able to do the same, even if it’s to a slightly lesser extent.

Paramount Pictures

Arrival, the new sci-fi drama from acclaimed director Denis Villeneuve and starring Amy Adams, has been projected to make anywhere from the low teens to the mid-twenties right now. The clout Villeneuve has, the draw of Adams, and the fact that this movie has done exceptionally well on the festival circuit (and now has a 96 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) should be able to appeal to audiences, but there’s still the chance this movie isn’t quite “mainstream” enough yet. It’ll be opening in a little over 2,300 theaters this weekend, which is good, and word of mouth is what should help this film a lot over the coming weeks. It’s already being pitted as an awards contender, which is another notch in its belt to draw in audiences, but I am simply not convinced enough that it will have widespread success (as much as I’m rooting for that).

	Rotten Tomatoes			IMDb		Metacritic
	Critics	Users	# of Ratings	Stars	# of Ratings
Doctor Strange	90	91	67,569	8.0	89,424	72
Trolls	73	76	22,005	6.7	4,085	56
Almost Christmas	39	N/A	23	N/A	N/A	50
Arrival	96	N/A	141	8.5	3,775	80
Hacksaw Ridge	86	96	17,376	8.7	10,347	71

Finally, Mel Gibson’s latest film, the World War II drama Hacksaw Ridge, will likely come in fifth. It’s proven itself to be a critical hit and while it won’t be a huge financial giant, it’s still doing remarkably well for itself. It’s now made about half its budget back ($20 million of $40 million) and it needs to have some more lucrative weeks in order to make a profit, but given all the movies that are opening soon, that will probably prove difficult to accomplish. Still, war dramas always have a way with sticking with audiences, but Gibson’s controversial nature might dissuade people from seeing the film. It’s adding 85 theaters this weekend which may not sound like a lot but can definitely make a difference.

The rest of the top ten will include mainstays from the recent weeks, as well as possibly the other new film of the weekend: the thriller Shut In starring Naomi Watts. However, much like the Kate Beckinsale-led The Disappointments Room, this one will likely not have that big of an opening. It’s projected to make between $2 and $4 million, which is nothing to write home. And with hit indie films Moonlight and Loving expanding, it’ll be exciting to see what kind of money they bring in this weekend.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets and Likes represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor