Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (12.15.16)

	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	$169 million
	Moana	$12.2 million
	Collateral Beauty	$11 million
	Office Christmas Party	$8.8 million
	Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	$6 million

Let’s take a look back at this time last year: Everyone was ramping up for the newest Star Wars film in years and The Force Awakens didn’t disappoint, bringing in nearly $250 million opening weekend. That was the start of a new Star Wars film every year and the next one has finally arrived, but it’s not a continuation of The Force Awakens. Instead, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is a standalone film that takes place right before A New Hope (think a solo Marvel film as compared to an Avengers film), starting the trend of Star Wars film alternating year-to-year between the current, main storyline and standalone films (the next one, to come out in 2018, is a movie about young Han Solo). Simply for the facts that Rogue One isn’t part of the main storyline and it’s not the first Star Wars film to open in years upon years, it will make considerably less than The Force Awakens. Don’t worry, we all already knew this. But don’t fret, because Rogue One is still going to make a huge chunk of change. So huge, in fact, that it will land in the top ten opening weekends of all time.

Tracking has the film opening somewhere between Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice’s $166 million and Captain America: Civil War’s $179 million and no matter which one it comes closer to, Rogue One is going to be an undeniable box office hit. Whether or not it will be the biggest opening of the year, besting Civil War’s current record, remains to be seen but Civil War has a leg up on the space film by the mere fact that it featured recognizable characters and a more recent storyline. Still, it should be at the very least Disney’s second-biggest opening of the year and that bodes well for the studio beating Universal’s box office record of last year. Anticipation is high for the film and it should have no problem meeting that anticipation with aplomb. The film is opening in 4,175 theaters, the widest release for any December film, and that number includes hundreds of theaters in 3D (200 more than The Force Awakens), IMAX, D-Box, and PLF, which will all bring in even more money. Needless to say, there’s no film out this weekend that holds a candle to Rogue One.

	Opening Weekend	Current Gross	Facebook Likes	Tweets
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	N/A	N/A	17,901,303	1,146,680
Moana	$56.631 million	$148.895 million	62,174	71,472
Collateral Beauty	N/A	N/A	125,683	11,510
Office Christmas Party	$16.890 million	$21.775 million	16,855	26,945
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	$74.403 million	$201.886 million	25,413	37,951

In fact, duking it out for second place will be another Disney film, the consistent Moana, and the sappy drama Collateral Beauty — and their race will be well over $100 million less than Rogue One, putting things into a bit of perspective. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything to say about the rest of the films this weekend. On the contrary, the battle between Moana and Collateral Beauty is an interesting one. Most new films, especially in wide release with a star-studded cast, tend to do better than repeat films but in this case, Moana, which will be in its fourth week, is likely to come out on top for a couple reasons. First, it’s a proven hit and has a much broader appeal than Collateral Beauty. There’s also the pesky caveat to Collateral Beauty regarding its reception — the film currently has a 13 percent on Rotten Tomatoes which is, well, appalling. Yet there will be people who either don’t read reviews or don’t put any stock into reviews and will be swayed to see the saccharine drama because of its stellar cast (Will Smith, Kate Winslet, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, etc.) and their stubborn desire to see an emotional film during the holidays.

But really, don’t mess with Disney animation.

Bringing up the rear will be Office Christmas Party, tumbling into fourth place from last weekend’s second, and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, looking to add even more to its domestic total which is officially over $200 million. Office Christmas Party’s drop shouldn’t be too terrible (less than 50 percent at the very least) because of its fun nature, holiday theme, and okay reviews. It’s now at $40.9 million worldwide on a $45 million budget, which bodes well for making a profit, but nothing more exciting than that. Fantastic Beasts, meanwhile, is still the least successful film in the entire Harry Potter franchise and while that probably isn’t going to change, it will go down as one of the most successful films of 2016. You win some, you lose some.

	Rotten Tomatoes			IMDb		Metacritic
	Critics	Users	# of Ratings	Stars	# of Ratings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	85	N/A	228	8.3	18,221	66
Moana	95	92	36,096	8.1	18,341	81
Collateral Beauty	13	N/A	59	5.2	450	26
Office Christmas Party	43	50	12,136	6.0	4,742	42
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	74	82	66,162	7.8	110,808	66

Other titles in the top ten for the weekend should include several awards contenders including La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Nocturnal Animals, and Arrival. The biggest battle here will be between Manchester by the Sea and La La Land but no matter which one comes out on top, it’s La La Land who will be the winner on the mere premise that it’s able to hold its own against a movie that’s in a little over 1,000 more theaters. La La Land making just as much Manchester, if not more or a little less, in 200 theaters, as opposed to Manchester’s 1,208, is a feat unto itself. The buzz around La La Land is likely much more enticing than that of Manchester, but it will still be an interesting race to watch this weekend.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets and Likes represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor