Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (03.12.15)

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$60 million

$13 million

$6 million

$5.5 million

$5 million

The big news of the weekend is Kenneth Branagh’s live-action Cinderella. With excellent interest numbers among women, outstanding awareness, and a pervasive marketing campaign, it’s poised to earn north of $60 million. That would make it the highest earner since Fifty Shades of Grey hit last month, and while Fifty Shades made more upfront, Cinderella, with its strong reviews and family-friendly premise, should have more staying power — even considering the upcoming competition from Insurgent. If I were you, I’d get used to seeing it in the top five.

The forecast isn’t quite so sunny for the weekend’s other new release, the Liam Neeson-starrer Run All Night. Projections are putting it between $12 and $15 million. I don’t know exactly what the movie’s production budget is, but a little research indicates that the average for a Liam Neeson thriller is in the low double-digits, so a $13 million opening might not be too bad; if it doesn’t drop too much and does well in foreign markets, it could certainly make back its production and marketing budgets, at least.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
N/A N/A 13,704,146  53,817
N/A N/A 55,355 10,087
CHAPPIE $13.347 million $15.842 million 292,020 59,736
$18.685 million $36.568 million 252,925 39,270
$36.206 million $99.698 million 424,880 69,982

Once again, this week, there’s a steep drop before we get to our returning champions. Chappie, going into its second week, and Focus, going into its third, have a bit of a head-start, having been the top two last week; the statistical realities of audience retention should ensure that they hold on to third and fourth place, respectively.

 Kingsman and Marigold, on the other hand, were in a virtual tie last week, with Marigold edging out Kingsman by a mere $200,000. Obviously, when you get down to differences as small as that, there’s a lot of guesswork involved, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kingsman overtake MarigoldKingsman is going into its fifth week, and long-lasting movies tend to have small audience loss late in their runs, while Marigold will be experiencing its first big drop after opening weekend. No matter what, expect them to be close.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
84 N/A 30,669 7.7 1,705 68
51 N/A 4,825 7.3 307 58
CHAPPIE 30 66 29,394 7.3 15,712 41
56 61 27,956 6.9 13,762 56
74 88 83,807 8.2 78,165 59

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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