Universal is set to release Jordan Peele’s follow-up to Get Out on March 15, 2019, the studio announced Monday.
Peele is writing and directing the “original and provocative” thriller, which will arrive one week after Disney’s Captain Marvel and one week before WB’s Godzilla 2. That’ll be quite the box office battle in March 2019. Let’s break it down.
Marvel’s Ant-Man, Doctor Strange and Guardians of the Galaxy averaged domestic openings of $78 million, which should be the minimum baseline for Captain Marvel, a film that could get a major bump from female audiences eager to see a female superhero front and center. Those three films experienced second-weekend drops between 49 percent and 56 percent. So the second weekend of Captain Marvel could be anywhere between $40 million and $50 million.
Get Out, meanwhile, opened to $33 million and showed amazing legs, ultimately taking in $174 million at the domestic box office. The film was loved by critics and audiences alike, and the thinking is that Peele’s next film could open closer to The Conjuring, which grossed $41 million in its opening frame. So clearly, Peele’s sophomore feature is going to give the second weekend of Captain Marvel a run for its money at the box office.
Meanwhile, WB’s Godzilla opened to $93 million and Kong: Skull Island opened to $61 million. It’s hard to say where Godzilla 2 will land, but let’s just split the difference and say $80 million, though it’s true that the sequel could outpace the original.
Peele’s second film behind the camera will have just one weekend before it faces a monster test in Godzilla 2, not that Get Out was scared off by its own stiff competition. The week after Get Out opened, Logan opened to $88 million, yet Peele’s film dropped just 15 percent, taking in an impressive $28 million in its second frame. It was a word-of-mouth hit, and all that chatter should result in an even bigger opening next time around, though only time will tell…
Jeff Sneider | Editor in Chief