by The Tracking Board Team
TRACKING BOARD TOP 5 WEEKEND PREDICTIONS |
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| Order | Title | Weekend Expectations |
| # 1 | THE MAZE RUNNER | $37 million |
| # 2 | THIS IS WHERE I LEAVE YOU | $16 Million |
| # 3 | A WALK AMONG THE TOMBSTONES | $13 Million |
| # 4 | NO GOOD DEED | $10 Million |
| # 5 | DOLPHIN TALE 2 | $9 Million |
A couple of notes about these predictions. Other predictors have put “A Walk Among the Tombstones” slightly ahead of “This Is Where I Leave You,” but they’ve generally given them fairly similar numbers, with “Tombstones” projected to best “This Is Where I Leave You” by about $3 million. I put “This Is Where I Leave You” ahead for a few reasons. First, although “Tombstones” has seen more Twitter activity in the last few days, “This Is Where I Leave You” has been outperforming it in the long term. Second, and much less rigorously, I’ve seen less marketing for “Tombstones” than I have for “This Is Where I Leave You.” And most importantly, female-driven movies have been outperforming expectations all summer. “This Is Where I Leave You” boasts Tina Fey, and is generally tracking well among women.
| Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
| THE MAZE RUNNER | $37 million (predicted) | N/A | 883,044 | 75609 |
| THIS IS WHERE I LEAVE YOU |
$16 million (predicted) | N/A | 207,036 | 9,286 |
| A WALK AMONG THE TOMBSTONES |
$13 million (predicted) | N/A | 279,656 | 8,694 |
| NO GOOD DEED | $24.25 million | $28.86 million | 410,091 | 89,940 |
| DOLPHIN TALE 2 | $15.87 million | $17.6 million | 428,981 | 25,883 |
On that note, I wouldn’t be shocked if “No Good Deed” actually took third, pushing “Tombstones” (or “This Is Where I Leave You,” depending) to fourth. A little surprised, but not shocked. If “Tombstones” does a $14 million opening weekend, “No Good Deed,” which took in $24 million in its first weekend, would have to limit its second-week drop to 30 percent — not impossible, but pretty damn unlikely. But if “Tombstones” underperforms even a little, taking in only $12 million or $10 million — not an implausible scenario, given how unreliable tracking has been this summer, especially for male-driven action — then “No Good Deed” would have to drop 50 or 60 percent to fall beneath it, and those numbers are much more doable.
Finally, this is almost certainly the week that “Guardians of the Galaxy” drops out of the top five. I imagine “Dolphin Tale 2” will drop significantly in its second week, but so will “Guardians,” which is now in its seventh. As long as “Dolphin Tale” doesn’t lose more than 75 percent of its audience, it looks like we’ll be waving goodbye to Groot.
| Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||||
| Critics | Users | # of Ratings | Stars | # of Ratings | ||
| THE MAZE RUNNER | 61% | N/A | 31,845 | N/A | 3,794 | 59 |
| THIS IS WHERE I LEAVE YOU |
40% | N/A | 14,094 | N/A | 349 | 45 |
| A WALK AMONG THE TOMBSTONES |
63% | N/A | 14,357 | N/A | 146 | 53 |
| NO GOOD DEED | 11% | 69% | 17,273 | 5.9 | 1,201 | 24 |
| DOLPHIN TALE 2 | 72% | 80% | 12,569 | 6.8 | 530 | 58 |
(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are projected. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes or IMDb user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
