Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions & Analysis (09.19.14)

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by The Tracking Board Team

TRACKING BOARD TOP 5 WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

Order Title Weekend Expectations
# 1 $37 million
# 2 $16 Million
# 3 $13 Million
# 4 $10 Million
# 5 $9 Million

A couple of notes about these predictions. Other predictors have put “A Walk Among the Tombstones” slightly ahead of “This Is Where I Leave You,” but they’ve generally given them fairly similar numbers, with “Tombstones” projected to best “This Is Where I Leave You” by about $3 million. I put “This Is Where I Leave You” ahead for a few reasons. First, although “Tombstones” has seen more Twitter activity in the last few days, “This Is Where I Leave You” has been outperforming it in the long term. Second, and much less rigorously, I’ve seen less marketing for “Tombstones” than I have for “This Is Where I Leave You.” And most importantly, female-driven movies have been outperforming expectations all summer. “This Is Where I Leave You” boasts Tina Fey, and is generally well among women.

Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
 $37 million (predicted) N/A 883,044  75609
THIS IS WHERE
I LEAVE YOU
 $16 million (predicted) N/A 207,036  9,286
A WALK
AMONG THE
TOMBSTONES
 $13 million (predicted) N/A 279,656  8,694
$24.25 million $28.86 million  410,091 89,940
 $15.87 million $17.6 million 428,981 25,883

On that note, I wouldn’t be shocked if “No Good Deed” actually took third, pushing “Tombstones” (or “This Is Where I Leave You,” depending) to fourth. A little surprised, but not shocked. If “Tombstones” does a $14 million opening weekend, “No Good Deed,” which took in $24 million in its first weekend, would have to limit its second-week drop to 30 percent — not impossible, but pretty damn unlikely. But if “Tombstones” underperforms even a little, taking in only $12 million or $10 million — not an implausible scenario, given how unreliable has been this summer, especially for male-driven action — then “No Good Deed” would have to drop 50 or 60 percent to fall beneath it, and those numbers are much more doable.

Finally, this is almost certainly the week that “Guardians of the Galaxy” drops out of the top five. I imagine “Dolphin Tale 2” will drop significantly in its second week, but so will “Guardians,” which is now in its seventh. As long as “Dolphin Tale” doesn’t lose more than 75 percent of its audience, it looks like we’ll be waving goodbye to Groot.

             
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings
61% N/A 31,845 N/A 3,794  59
THIS IS WHERE
I LEAVE YOU
40% N/A 14,094 N/A 349  45
A WALK
AMONG THE
TOMBSTONES
63% N/A 14,357 N/A 146 53
 11% 69% 17,273  5.9 1,201  24
 72% 80% 12,569  6.8 530 58

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are projected. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes or IMDb user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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