Your Complete Weekend Box Office Predictions, Tracking, & Analysis (12.04.14)

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by:  | Contributor

$34 million

$15 million

$13 million

$12 million

$9 million

Is anyone else having deja vu right now? There are no new releases this week. The closest is horror movie The Pyramid, which isn’t technically in wide release, and which is way underperforming in social media. If this were the low-grossing Halloween weekend, it might make an impact; up against four movies that are almost sure to retain double-digit grosses, it doesn’t stand a chance.

I’ve kept the ordering of the top five the same as last week. It’s a forgone conclusion that Mockingjay will keep the top spot, and Horrible Bosses 2 seems unlikely to rise from fifth, though I guess it’s possible. The midde three, though, have some wiggle room.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
$121.898 million $231.476 million 22,223,451 254,520
$25.447 million $37.189 million 3,393,456 44,071
$56.216 million $168.465 million 645,756 70,544
$47.51 million $148.93 million 968,399 56,456
$15.457 million $25.339 million 732,181 43,930

The problem with predicting Penguins of MadagascarBig Hero 6, and Interstellar is the weird way the box office has been working for them. Last weekend, in their fourth weeks, Big Hero 6 dropped only 6.5 percent, and Interstellar actually went up by 2.6 percent. If they were to repeat those feats this week, and Penguins were to act like a normal movie and drop a reasonable 30 percent, Big Hero 6 and Interstellar would be in second and third place again.

Obviously, I don’t think that’s terribly likely, but it factored into the high audience retention I’ve predicted for the top five’s current veterans. I’m particularly impressed with Big Hero 6 for holding up so well against a new animated family feature.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
66 76 196,322 7.2 68,373 64
70 69 41,465 7.3 3,970 53
89 93 56,832 8.3 23,341 75
73 87 113,922 8.9 1,514 74
32 62 37,705 7.1 7,085 40

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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