Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Prediction, & Analysis (11.20.14)

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$150 million

$18 million

$17 million

$15 million

$4 million

There’s not much to say, this week, at least not as far as the top spot goes. Mockingjay is going to take the weekend. Mockingjay is going to take the weekend by a lot. How much is Mockingjay going to win by? Well, let’s put it this way: This weekend, Mockingjay is going to earn more money than you and your 50 closest friends will in your entire lives, unless you or one of your 50 closest friends happen to be Jennifer Lawrence. Projections have been saying the latest Hunger Games installment could go as high as $170 million (!) or as low as $130 million (chump change). General consensus, however, has it around $150 million, on par with what the first two films made.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
N/A N/A 21,849,178  442,874
$56.216 million $113.31 million 552,160 137,393
$36.112 million $40.578 million 4,202,853 79,373
$47.51 million $101.715 million 842,695 173,076
$6.2 million $6.953 million 387,024 119,953

The rest of the top five is a little more complicated, but not by much. Interstellar  is more or less guaranteed the #4 spot, and Beyond the Lights has a very good shot at hanging on to #5. Gone Girl had a good long run, but if it drops the 25 percent that it’s been hovering around for the past few weekends, it’ll be at $3.42 million, and Beyond the Lights would have to drop 45 percent to dip below that. Not impossible by any means, but people seem to like Beyond the Lights, and I think it’ll squeak out a win on word of mouth.

That leaves Dumb and Dumber To and Big Hero 6 to battle it out for second place. Dumb and Dumber won last week with $36 million, about $2 million more than the second week of Big Hero 6. But it didn’t get a very good reception; it seems to have left even die-hard fans of the original movie cold, so word of mouth is unlikely to help it. It’s worth noting that the only day that Dumb and Dumber topped sales was on Friday; every day since then, it’s been outperformed by either Big Hero 6 or Interstellar.  I’m anticipating a fairly large drop for Dumb and Dumber (somewhere in the 55 percent range), and a comparatively low one for Big Hero 6, which, besides being well reviewed, remains the only real family-friendly option on the table. They’ll still be close, and there’s some room for error — in particular, Mockingjay seems more likely to cut into Big Hero 6‘s audience than Dumb and Dumber‘s — but if I had to guess (and I do), I’d put Big Hero 6 second and Dumb and Dumber third.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
70 N/A 175,135 7.6 6,269 64
89 94 45,728 8.4 15,615 75
24 56 37,404 7.0 9,236 36
73 87 100,429 9.0 235,573 74
85 85 9,207 6.5 883 73

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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