Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (02.26.15)

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$25 million

$11 million

$10 million

$9 million

$8 million

In the upcoming low-grossing weekend, not much is sure except the top spot. With Fifty Shades of Grey in freefall, Focus would have to dramatically underperform in order to lose out on first place. The Will Smith-Margot Robbie con artist movie has been marketed well, and it fits a profile (adult-oriented, undemanding action/thrillers) that is both profitable and long-missing from the cinema landscape. (If I’m not mistaken, the last entry in the genre was the undermarketed Blackhat last month, and prior to that, December’s The Gambler.) I doubt Focus‘ take will break the bank, but low- to mid-twenties seems about right.

Slots 2 – 5 are harder to suss out. It’s pretty clear which movies will be there: new release The Lazarus Effect and returning players Fifty ShadesKingsman, and The Spongebob Movie. (Last week’s surprise successes, McFarland USA and The DUFF, will likely make an appearance only if one of those four takes a serious drop.) Predicting the order is harder, because each of those movies should take in somewhere between $8 and $11 million. Trying to place four movies within $3 million is a bit of a crapshoot; if a single movie under- or overperforms in the slightest, everything goes to hell.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
N/A N/A 201,541 54,255
$36.206 million  $71.255 million 329,237 183,325
$85.171 million $133.274 million 9,418,562 279,845
N/A N/A 82,707 11,218
$55.365 million $127.854 million 766,564 38,721

But we have to make some prediction, so here goes. Fifty Shades dropped nearly 3/4 of its audience between its first and second weeks. If it does the same this weekend, it’ll dip below $6 million. But another drop of that magnitude seems unlikely; for one thing, it’s been posting reasonably healthy weekday numbers, and for another, dropping 75 percent from $85 million is a lot different from losing the proportionate amount from $22 million. The 55 – 65 percent range seems more probable, putting Fifty Shades around $10 million.

Kingsman, on the other hand, posted a respectable 49 percent drop going into its second week, and has been getting some reasonably good word-of-mouth. (Seriously, take a look at its Twitter numbers; it’s outdoing Age of Ultron, at the moment, and those are mostly positive tweets.) It might limit its third-weekend drop to, say, 40 percent, giving it $11 million letting it overtake Fifty Shades for second place.

Projections have been giving horror movie The Lazarus Effect a $9 million debut, mostly because of low awareness and the generally lackluster response to off-season, unmarketed horror movies. Meanwhile, Spongebob will probably drop 40 – 50 percent of its audience, as it has in the past two weekends — and my guess is, going into its fourth weekend, it’ll be closer to 50 percent than 40, leaving it with just over $8 million, and the #5 spot.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
60 N/A 19,704 6.9 712 57
73 88 74,972 8.3 52,098 59
24 49 53,886 4.2 88,964 46
22 N/A 6,533 6.2 162 28
75 62 29,669 6.7 7,172 63

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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