Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (03.19.15)

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$50 million

$38 million

$6.5 million

$4.5 million

$4 million

Here’s another week with a nice, easy first-place prediction: It’s Insurgent. Now and forever (or at least until Furious 7Insurgent. Like its predecessor, Insurgent should easily clear $50 million, knocking Cinderella into second place. How far Cinderella falls is a slightly trickier matter. My guess? Not too far. The reviews are good (although the exceptions tend to review it very poorly), but more importantly, Cinderella has found that age-old sweet spot where it’s the only family film currently in theaters. Judging by how many little girls in princess dresses I saw at the theater last week, Cinderella could be a much worse movie and still hang on to a lot of its audience.

There are two other new releases this weekend. I doubt that faith-focused Do You Believe? will make much impact, but Sean Penn’s action thriller The Gunman could sneak into third. I say “sneak,” and I mean it; if The Gunman underperforms even a little, it’s looking at fourth or fifth place. And it may very well underperform. Awareness is low, interest is lackluster, and it’s facing competition from last week’s #2 movie, Liam Neeson action thriller Run All Night.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
N/A N/A 4,707,428 206,683
$67.877 million $83.078 million 13,281,23 85,248
N/A N/A 84,434 2,125
$36.206 million $109.364 million 445,741 25,701
$11.012 million $13.854 million 61,716 21,432

Of course, that competition works both ways. Run All Night didn’t do very well to begin with (it only made $11 million last weekend), and if it drops as much as I think it might, it’ll be in danger of falling out of the top five altogether. But I think it’ll hang on, if only because I really don’t think Do You Believe? is going to make much. Kingsman, on the other hand, should continue to limit its audience drop in its sixth week. If it matches its audience retention from last weekend, it’ll take in nearly $5 million.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
34 N/A 41,484 6.7 2,286 43
84 87 38,653 7.8 10,988 67
20 N/A 8,145 5.7 549 40
74 87 86,953 8.2 87,825 59
59 64 8,129 7.2 3,994 59

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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