Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (03.26.15)


$35 million

$26 million


$25 million

$18 million

$3 million

This week’s two new releases revive genres that haven’t been seen at the box office in several months. The Kevin Hart – Will Ferrell starrer Get Hard is the first comedy to hit theaters since The DUFF, and the first outside the teen demographic since Kingsman: The Secret Service. (Kingsman, of course, has been in the top five since time immemorial, but to diminishing returns — and it will likely drop out this week.) In the absence of comedic competition, and coming on the tail of a string of hits from Hart, Get Hard is likely to do well no matter what reviews say. Tracking is good, especially among young men; low- to mid-thirties seems right.

At the other end of the genre spectrum is this week’s new Dreamworks release, HomeHome is actually about as well as Get Hard — slightly lower awareness and interest, though in other demographics, as you might imagine — but there’s not much buzz about it, and it suffers from a concept that’s hard to pick up from context. (Compare, for instance, How to Train Your Dragon, where everything you need to know is right there in the title.) But the real problem for Home will be competition from the third week of Cinderella. Parents who are taking their kids to the movies are going to take their kids to the movies, even if they’re not enamored of their choices, but many of them may pick the title they’re familiar with over the new one. Home should take in somewhere in the low- to mid-twenties; exactly where it falls on that spectrum will determine whether it’s in second place or third.

  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
N/A N/A 176,210  23,484
$52.264 million $61.76 million 4,850,318 608,567
HOME N/A N/A 318,596*
$67.877 million $130.269 million 13,225,328 58,371
$11.012 million $21.231 million 64,925

Insurgent leads the pack of returning movies. Assuming a drop of 50 percent from its opening weekend — on track with what Divergent did last summer — it should take in about $26 million, which is probably (though not certainly) enough to secure it in second place. Cinderella seems likely to drop the same amount, or maybe slightly less, so it will almost certainly take fourth place with around $18 million. And then there’s a steep drop to fifth, where either Run All Night or The Gunman will drop to $3 million. My money’s on Run All Night.

  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
28 N/A 25,415 6.0 571 31
31 69 48,093 7.0 16,200 42
HOME 40 N/A 19,934 6.7 1,397 49
84 87 43,494 7.7 17,295 67
60 65 10,227 7.1 6,087 59

(Sources:,,, Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

 | Contributor

Leave A Reply