Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (04.30.15)

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the box office-2

 

THE

$210 million

 

$8 million

 

$7 million

 

$6 million

 

HOME

$5 million

The question isn’t whether Age of Ultron will win the weekend. It isn’t whether Age of Ultron will make back its budget. It isn’t even whether Age of Ultron will set a box office record. The answer to all of those questions is clearly yes: Yes, Age of Ultron will win the weekend, yes, it will more than pay off for Marvel, and yes, it’s already set box office records overseas. The only interesting question that has yet to be answered, so far as the box office goes, is whether Age of Ultron will specifically break the record for highest-grossing opening weekend that was set by The Avengers. The bar to clear is $207 million. The Avengers rode a wave of shockingly good reviews, word of mouth, and long-simmering anticipation to a behemoth opening in 2012.  Age of Ultron has only the last of those — reviews are generally positive but not glowing, and word of mouth, though hard to predict, will probably be the same — but it has it in spades. The presales for Age of Ultron outpace the presales for every other Marvel Cinematic Universe movie combined. Its first online trailer broke online viewing records. It’s been tweeted about nearly half a million times in the last six days. Awareness is tracking in the high 80s/low 90s; interest is tracking in the 70s. When a movie is tracking this well, its performance can be hard to project — see, for instance, Mockingjay Part 1, which fell nearly $30 million short of the $150 million ballpark figure most people were eyeing. If Age of Ultron performs exactly as tracking indicates, it’ll make $200 million, but that kind of accuracy is rare even when dealing with much lower projections. My guess is that Age of Ultron will outstrip its predecessor — not by much, but by enough to grab the record.

Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
THE N/A N/A 13,699,533  441,073
$147.187 million $322.669 million 56,699,231 110,030
$23.762 million $44.655 million 1,125,787
$13.203 million $15.471 million 326,561 46,769
HOME $52.108 million $154.263 million

Oh my God, there are other movies in theaters this week, aren’t there? No new releases — duh — but spots 2 – 5 do have to get filled somehow. At this point, last week’s top five are all pulling in grosses low enough that it’s difficult to say what order they’ll land in. Ordinarily, I’d say Furious 7 is a lock for second place, but of the five, it faces the most obvious competition from Age of Ultron. Still, it should eek out Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 for the spot. The real question is whether Mall Cop or The Age of Adaline, which had only about $1 million separating them last week, will take third. My guess is Mall Cop by a hair. Finally, Home enters its sixth week as the only kids’ movie in the competition, guaranteeing it at the very least the #5 spot.

     
Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
THE 75 N/A 213,882 8.2 67,982 67
82 87 166,039 7.9 125,932 67
6 48 21,857 4.0 3,403 13
54 71 20,287 7.4 3,607 51
HOME 46 69 33,831 6.8 10,796 55

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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