Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (05.07.15)

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the box office-2

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THE

$95 million

$18 million

$4 million

$3 million

$2.5 million

It should come as no surprise to anyone who lives near a screen of any kind that Age of Ultron will take the weekend again. And not just by a little; possibly by a factor of 5. In general, movies that score big also drop big; see, for instance, Furious 7, which lost 60 percent of its audience between its first and second weekends, falling from $147 million to $59 million, or the first Avengers, which dropped from $207 million to $103 million. In all likelihood, Age of Ultron will drop somewhere between 50 and 60 percent. The number I have above reflects a 50 percent drop, but a 60 percent drop would put it in the mid-70s — which is still more than three times what the second-place finisher is likely to make.

That second place will go to the weekend’s sole new release, Hot Pursuit, an action comedy starring Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. Reviews are not good, but Hot Pursuit is tracking pretty well, and provides moderately decent counter-programming for Age of Ultron. And the only comedy theaters have seen for a while now is Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2. It’s not going to set records, but Hot Pursuit probably won’t embarrass itself, either.

Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
THE $191.271 million $217.632 million 13,858,672 591,014
N/A N/A 140,896 28,832
$147.187 million $332.173 million 56,828,677 56,052
$13.203 million $24.716 million 350,355
$23.762 million $52.255 million 1,128,844

After Hot Pursuit, the drop-off becomes even steeper. Furious 7The Age of Adaline, and Mall Cop are all going into their third week or older. The most any of them made last week was Furious 7‘s $6.6 million, so they don’t have very far to fall. When grosses get that low, everything’s pretty squished together, so their ordering is hard to predict, but it seems a relatively safe bet that Furious 7 will hang on to third, leaving Adaline and Mall Cop to duke it out for the bottom spot.

     
Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
THE 75 89 230,326 8.1 136,533 66
10 N/A 9,194 4.3 115 30
82 87 169,745 7.8 133,984 67
54 71 22,540 7.4 5,603 51
6 46 25,533 4.0 4,025 13

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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