YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (05.19.16)

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the box office-2

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Captain America: Civil War

$36.3 million

The Angry Birds Movie

$35.5 million

Neighbors 2

$34 million

The Nice Guys

$12 million

The Jungle Book

$10.3 million

Predicting this weekend is like splitting hairs. Captain America: Civil War will have a sizable third weekend to be sure, but newcomers The Angry Birds Movie and Neighbors 2 will duke it out for a chance at 1st place. Civil War surpassed $300 million domestic Monday, reaching the goal just one day after Avengers: Age of Ultron did last year, and nine days ahead of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice’s own $300 million mark. Our comparison of Age of Ultron suggests that Civil War will see a drop of around 50% in its third weekend, same as Ultron did when up against Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road. Cap 3 currently stands in 7th place out of all MCU releases, but it should overtake 6th place Iron Man 2’s total $312.4 million take by tonight, if not the original Iron Man’s $318.4 million by this weekend. Civl War’s lowest weekday so far was Monday’s $4.8 million take, so finishing out a stellar week plus a $36 million take this weekend puts it north of $350 million, securing it the 4th place MCU spot. This is in front of Guardians of the Galaxy’s $333.2 million and behind Iron Man 3’s $409 million. As Civil War has had no trouble besting Iron Man 3’s numbers so far, it seems a safe bet it’ll take that record, too.

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Perhaps a little late, considering Rovio’s addictive game reached its peak in 2010, The Angry Birds Movie debuts this weekend. Produced by Rovio and Sony Pictures Imageworks, the film features an all-star voice actor cast, with the likes of Jason Sudeikis, Josh Gad, Sean Penn, Bill Hader, Maya Rudloph, Keegan-Michael Key, Kate McKinnon, and many, many more. Sony has reportedly spend hundreds of million of dollars to promote the film, which is especially noticeable from product placement and bus ads everywhere. This is Sony’s first animated film since Hotel Transylvania 2, which opened with $48.5 million last September. Projections are a little lower than that, thanks to so much competition in the current box office, but being the only animated film since Zootopia might help. That said, it’s been an on-and-off year for animated films. We’ve seen successes, like Zootopia and the less impressive Kung Fu Panda 3, but we’ve also seen some duds—the recent Ratchet & Clank, for instance, and Norm of the North. Granted, awareness for Angry Birds is higher than either of those, and it’s an existing franchise that, unlike Ratchet & Clank, is much more a part of recent memory. However, Birds got the PG rating, making Zootopia the only G contender in theaters. Birds is around 2011’s Rio, which featured a similar all-star voice cast and opened at $39 million. However, Rio faced much less competition at the box office, only opening against Scream 4 with no superheroes in sight. Early reviews have been moderate to negative, but Birds has already grossed $43 million internationally, opening in over 20 markets a week early. The Sony flick should swoop in at 2nd place, right on Civil War‘s tail.  

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
Civil War $179.139 million $306.646 million 16,763,892  262,635
Angry Birds N/A N/A 941,997 31,300
Neighbors 2 N/A N/A 1,575,686 34,649
The Nice Guys N/A N/A 64,298 31,631
The Jungle Book $103.261 million $314.085 million 1,174,301 19,082

The original Neighbors opened at $49 million in 2014, up against The Amazing Spider-Man 2 in its second week out, and Captain America 2 in its sixth. This was an outsize opening for stars Seth Rogan and Zac Efron, both who’ve floundered at the comedy box office since. Fellow star Rose Byrne, however, had a sizable opening last year with Spy at $29 million. sequels tend to open under the originals, with the notable exceptions being 22 Jump Street beating its predecessor by over $20 million, and Pitch Perfect 2 opening over 4.5 times as high as Pitch Perfect. Usually it’s the other way around, such as with Ride Along 2, Ted 2, Horrible Bosses, and Hot Tub Time Machine 2. Where Neighbors 2 might succeed is where Neighbors did—with a non male-only lead cast, and the sequel has even more women. Plus, having the central characters be young parents draws in more of a crowd than your average college comedy, while balancing that with eye candy from Zac Efron and Chloe Grace Moretz’s team of sorority sisters. Plus, marketing has been widespread, capitalizing on Civil War by using a remarkably similar poster design. Reviews have been moderate to positive so far, lower than the original, but not by much. It likely won’t reach the same heights as the first film, but it’s got a good chance at hitting mid-$30 million numbers, giving both Angry Birds and Civil War a run for their money.

Neighbors 2

Writer-director Shane Black’s The Nice Guys has gotten a lot of good early press thanks to debuting at Cannes on the 15th. Black’s last film (and second one directed) was Iron Man 3 in 2013, which opened at $174 million, and is his only wide release as a director to date. His directorial debut, 2005’s Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang, was well-received but never saw more than a couple hundred theaters. Starring Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling (but not Robert Downey, Jr.) and cut from the same cloth as Kiss Kiss and Lethal Weapon, The Nice Guys has seen extremely positive reviews so far. Set in the 1970s in LA, the film features Gosling as a private eye who must work alongside Crowe’s “enforcer” to find a missing girl, accidentally stumbling across a conspiracy in the process. With no reliable comp from Black’s career to compare for this opening, we’ll look at Crowe and Gosling’s numbers instead. Crowe has few comedies to compare to. Rom-com A Good Year opened to $3.7 million in 2006, but that’s on the low end. Gosling’s had The Big Short, Crazy, Stupid, Love., and Lars and the Real Girl. Lars was a very limited run, leaving the two ensembles. Crazy, Stupid, Love. opened at $19 million in 2011, and The Big Short opened wide with $10.5 million just this last December. Thanks to the R-Rating and box office competition, we’re skewing toward The Big Short’s numbers, though The Nice Guys has none of the awards season buzz that Short enjoyed. Guys does have 1,200 more locations than Short did, and though it’s a crowded weekend, it’s not a Force Awakens and The Revenant type crowded, which is what Short was up against. Similar to last weekend’s Money Monster, Nice Guys will see a nice boost from being on the Cannes radar, and will take 4th place, though its numbers will be subdued in comparison to the other new releases.

While The Jungle Book and Money Monster have been close all week in dailies, Jungle is coming out ahead, and though it’ll be impacted by Angry Birds’ opening in the family space, it shouldn’t see more than a 40% drop. A similar drop from Money Monster puts it a good $1.5 million behind Jungle. This leaves Jungle in 5th place, with a possibility for beating out Nice Guys for 4th, while Monster is solidly in 6th. The Jungle Book has grossed $314.1 million stateside, leaving it a mere $20 million behind Alice in Wonderland’s overall take in 2010, and still ahead in day-to-date numbers. Jungle has only one weekend left to cash in before Alice in Wonderland 2 debuts, stealing away screens and audiences alike. Meanwhile, Money Monster saw good returns last weekend thanks to its Cannes debut, and has grossed $17.9 million so far, with an additional $4.9 million in foreign. A 40% drop in its second weekend leaves it with a take of around $8.9 million.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
Civil War 90 91 138,438 8.4 182,814 75
Angry Birds 49 N/A 87 6.6 3,029 38
Neighbors 2 65 N/A 85 6.3 4,023 57
The Nice Guys 91 N/A 70 8.3 971 72
The Jungle Book 95 91 62,080 7.9 73,615 77

flick The Darkness will see a steep fall thanks to poor reviews, similar to this January’s also badly reviewed horror offering The Forest, which dropped 53% in its second weekend, or Blumhouse’s last Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, which saw an impressive 57% drop in its own second week, which was, yes, Halloween weekend. A 50% fall off for the Kevin Bacon-starrer means a take of $2.5 million for 7th place. Mother’s Day will see a similar drop, leaving it in 9th place with $1.6 million in its fourth weekend. New Disney classic will hop over Mother’s Day to secure 8th, experiencing only a 40% drop for a $1.7 million weekend. The last time Zootopia had a fall of that magnitude, it was when The Jungle Book premiered, and the animated romp has proved unaffected in the face of adult fare. Approaching its twelfth weekend out, Zootopia has grossed over $332 million domestic, and $971 million worldwide. Last but not least, 10th place belongs to The Huntsman: Winter’s War. The beleaguered sequel will follow on the heels of Mother’s Day with $1.5 million for its fifth weekend.

After a sizable take in limited last week, ’s The Lobster is expanding. The futuristic dark comedy brought in $190 thousand over 4 theaters, outperforming The Danish Girl‘s release and coming close to Carol. Both indies went on to gross around $11-13 million domestically. Though seemingly not as loved as CarolLobster is no slouch, well-received by critics and users alike. Romantic comedy Maggie’s Plan will see a handful of locations this weekend as well. Starring Greta Gerwig, Ethan Hawke, Julianne Moore, Maya Rudolph, and Bill Hader, the film has received positive reviews since debuting last year at TIFF. Another limited release, Weiner tells the infamous, true story of Anthony Weiner’s ill-fated NYC mayoral run tainted by his sex scandal.  The documentary’s seen favorable reviews so far, and will see 4 locations thanks to IFC Films

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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