YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (06.02.16)

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the box office-2

box office collage

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

$34 million

X-Men: Apocalypse

$29.6 million

Me Before You

$12 million

Alice Through the Looking Glass

$10.7 million

The Angry Birds Movie

$9.4 million

The Turtles face off against Professor X’s students this weekend in something reminiscent of mid-90s Saturday morning cartoons. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows should have no problem claiming 1st place, with X-Men: Apocalypse trailing behind in its second week out. Fellow newcomers Me Before You and Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping will accompany Out of the Shadows, but only one is forecasted as strong enough to break the Top 5, while the other is something of a wildcard. Both offer counter-programming to what’s been in theaters recently, college kids out of school could make all the difference for either, and they’re occupying completely separate corners of the spectrum.

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Out of the Shadows is director Dave Green’s second feature, following children’s sci-fi Earth to Echo, and boasting a budget over ten times as large. With Will Arnett and Megan Fox returning, as well as the questionable voice cast, the Michael Bay-produced popcorn flick added Tyler Perry, Laura Linney, and Stephen Amell to the fun this go-round. The first (reboot) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was somewhat of a surprise hit in 2014, opening at $65.6 million and going on to gross $493.3 million worldwide. For a few reasons, Paramount can hardly hope for those numbers the second time around. The first Turtles wasn’t particularly well-received, panned by critics and fans alike and nominated for several Razzies. The second is doing slightly better with critics, but it’s been a rough year for sequels, from Neighbors 2 to Alice Through the Looking GlassShadows will be in the most theaters of anything opening this weekend, at 4,000, and it shouldn’t face as stiff of a drop as Alice did from its original. Some are aiming Shadows high, even so much as in the mid-50s, but that’s excessive. A 50% drop to its predecessor’s debut clocks it in at a $32.8 million opening, and we’ll be a bit generous.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles N/A N/A 2,627,456 28,665
X-Men: Apocalypse  $65.770 million $86.324 million 14,391,655 161,790
Me Before You N/A N/A 538,921 33,913
Alice Through the Looking Glass $26.859 million $36.275 million 15,938,024 71,197
The Angry Birds Movie $38.155 million $74.045 million 1,014,275 20,201

While X-Men: Apocalypse didn’t have the huge opening Fox might’ve hoped for, it’s not exactly suffering. After opening at $65.8 million last weekend, the latest in the franchise has gone on to grab $86.3 million domestic with an additional $190.9 million overseas. The mutants will see a dip of around 55%, similar to the one fellow Marvel Comics entry Guardians of the Galaxy experienced when the first Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles opened in 2014. Though it’s received moderate-to-low reviews from critics, Apocalypse has done much better with fans and should see a strong run, even if it won’t be enough to rival sophomore Days of Future PastApocalypse drops in China this weekend, where Future Past grossed $116 million in 2014.

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Based on the eponymous novel by Jojo Moyes, Me Before You starring Emilia Clarke and Sam Claflin, bows Friday. Known for their roles in Game of Thrones and the Hunger Games franchise, respectively, this is somewhat of an odd fit for either British actor to get a foothold here in the States. The romantic drama is similarly to Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Longest Ride, which opened to $13 million in April of 2015, albeit in 500 more theaters. If the tearjerker can hit close to that number, and perform concurrently well or better in the UK, it should match its reported $25 million budget. It’s worth noting, however, that recent romantic drama The Choice (another Sparks one) opened at a mere $6 million back in February. If Me Before You misses the mark entirely this weekend when faced with so much comic book competition, it could end up in 8th place instead of 3rd.

Barely holding on, Alice Through the Looking Glass should be able to make a grab for 4th, even with a 60% drop in its second weekend. Though it opened day-and-date across 70% of international markets, Alice has nabbed only $69 million overseas so far. The Disney sequel is the lowest for the studio since January’s The Finest Hours, which topped out at $27.6 million, proving that even a banner year isn’t without its speed bumps. Fifth place belongs to The Angry Birds Movie, which should see a fall of around 50% in its third weekend thanks to family competition from Out of the ShadowsBirds has grabbed a sizable $229 million worldwide so far, with $52.3 million coming from China.


The battle for 6th place is up in the air, with the logical choice being Captain America: Civil War. The $1.1 billion worldwide film will be in its fifth weekend, expected to take a fall around 50% as it has in subsequent weeks. Taking in around $7.7 million will keep Cap on track to match Iron Man 3‘s $490 million take from 2013. Day-to-date, Steve Rogers is just edging out Tony Stark’s numbers, and can only hope to stay in theaters for the same 19 weeks that IM3 managed. That means 7th place belongs to newbie Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping, which is expected to debut in the mid-single digits, likely between $6-7 million.

Written by SNL faves The Lonely Island, starring all three–Andy Samberg, Akiva Schaffer, and Jorma Taccone– and directed by Schaffer and Taccone, the mockumentary purportedly skewers Justin Bieber-type musicians. With a star-studded cast and chockfull of cameos, the comedy’s been low with awareness growing slowly each day leading up to its release. Samberg’s show Brooklyn Nine-Nine was just renewed for a fourth season on Fox, but that’s not any real indication of moviegoer success. The question here is whether or not Lonely Island’s internet popularity can translate into box office dollars. The last film from the trio was 2007’s Hot Rod, which opened to $5.3 million. There’s always a chance that Popstar will surprise, especially given the good press its scene this week thanks to positive reviews.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 31 N/A 36 6.7 1,293 42
X-Men: Apocalypse  47 74 105,337 7.5 79,427 53
Me Before You 52 N/A 44 8.1 250 54
Alice Through the Looking Glass 29 58 24,809 6.4 7,550 34
The Angry Birds Movie 43 53 17,291 6.4 10,276 43

Eighth places goes to Neighbors 2, which fall about 50% in its third showing to take in $4.7 million. The sequel has grossed $42 million so far, and $78.8 million worldwide. The Jungle Book will take 9th, just behind Neighbors 2 with $4.6 million, a 35% drop in line with its first seven weeks. Disney’s first live action reboot of the year has grossed $341.9 million domestic with an additional $541 million overseas. And rounding out the Top 10 is The Nice Guys. The crime comedy will fall around 40% to nab $3.9 million in its third weekend. -director Shane Black’s third feature has grossed $24.5 million so far. Last week’s 9th place offering Love & Friendship is expanding to an additional 300 theaters. Considering the indie Jane Austen flick pulled in $2.4 million in fewer than 500 locations last week, there is the possibility it could knock out The Nice Guys and take 10th for itself.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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