YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (06.23.16)
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Finding Dory |
$67.4 million |
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Independence Day: Resurgence |
$53 million |
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Central Intelligence |
$15.9 million |
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Free State of Jones |
$12 million |
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The Shallows |
$10.5 million |
To say that Finding Dory has made a, well, splash, is an understatement. It’s a tidal wave, at least. Dory will stick around in 1st place for at least another weekend, easily holding off new openers Independence Day: Resurgence, Free State of Jones, and The Shallows. The latest Disney-Pixar film sits at $195.9 million currently. So far, it’s grossed over $100 million more than the original Finding Nemo, and it’s not slowing down. Earlier this week, it posted the highest ever Tuesday gross for an animated film, beating out Minions soundly. It’s also already bested the totals for X-Men: Apocalypse and The Angry Birds Movie, in six days. It’s tracking way ahead of top earners Deadpool, Zooptopia, is barely behind Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and day-to-date trails Captain America: Civil War by less than $20 million. And daily numbers suggest it could coast past both by tomorrow. Fellow top Pixar flick Toy Story 3 saw a 46% dip in its second weekend, and a similar drop would put Dory at $73 million. However, TS3 wasn’t facing a big, epic sequel. A 50% drop seems more likely, but still lets Dory swim effortlessly to 1st.
Independence Day: Resurgence director Roland Emmerich is no alien to big grosses, but he’s also no stranger to duds. The review embargo isn’t a good sign for Independence Day: Resurgence, with critics relegated to seeing it with the general population. A big budget director known for disaster flicks, and maybe the occasional Stonewall, Emmerich’s last wide release was White House Down. The Jamie Foxx / Channing Tatum action match-up, released a scant three months after Olympus Has Fallen, grossed $73 million domestic against a $150 million budget, though it did pull in an additional $132 million international. Worldwide catastrophe flick 2012 grossed $166 million against $200 million, but made enough overseas to warrant the price tag–$769.7 million. The strangely inaccurate 10,000 B.C. grossed just under $95 million, and cost $105 million, with another $175 million coming from abroad. The last film Emmerich directed that beat its budget Stateside was 2004’s The Day After Tomorrow, with $186.7 million against $125 million. In fact, the original Independence Day is the only one of his movies to ever knock its budget out of the park domestically, when it made $306 million against $75 million back in 1996. It was the top grosser of ’96, with the highest opening weekend and highest worldwide gross, and is still the best Will Smith’s done at the box office.
But, sadly, Smith turned down Resurgence, and Jeff Goldblum and Bill Pullman just don’t have that kind of draw with audiences. Remember, Goldblum stayed out of Jurassic World, that little sequel that’s now the fourth highest grossing movie both domestic and worldwide, of all time. Independence Day opened to $50.2 million over July 4th weekend in ’96, and went onto a monster $306 million, or $594 million adjusted for inflation. As we’ve seen, Emmerich’s work usually makes its money overseas, and Resurgence‘s $165 million budget should be pocket change if it can have even half the foreign luck that domestic bomb Warcraft has seen. The scant reviews we’ve seen for Resurgence put it solidly in the mixed-to-negative camp, but keep in mind the original isn’t classically “good” either, no matter how much we all rewatch it on cable every summer (or every time it’s on). People will see it, either thanks to nostalgia or because it’s hot out or even because disaster movies are the best summer box office fare, but it’s not likely to hit $55 million in its opening weekend.
Opening Weekend | Current Gross | Facebook Likes | Tweets | |
Finding Dory | $135.060 million | $195.909 million | 2,542,465 | 1,041,829 |
ID: Resurgence | N/A | N/A | 1,487,442 | 27,415 |
Central Intelligence | $35.535 million | $47.612 million | 268,178 | 18,911 |
Free State of Jones | N/A | N/A | 25,938 | 4,161 |
The Shallows | N/A | N/A | 432,007 | 16,254 |
After a solid first weekend, Central Intelligence has currently grossed $47.6 million. This past January, star Kevin Smith’s buddy cop sequel Ride Along 2 fell 65% in its second weekend, and last June similarly themed espionage comedy Spy dropped 46%. As Intelligence‘s ratings fall right in between the two films, let’s say it’ll drop some 55% when faced with Resurgence and a second weekend of the more family friendly Dory. This easily grabs it 3rd place, with just under $16 million. Intelligence could laugh it up, though, given that it’s outperforming both Spy and Ride Along 2 in weekday numbers, and hit closer to $20 million. Direct PG-13 audience competition from Resurgence makes it unlikely, though. Civil War story Free State of Jones will take 4th, debuting this weekend and staring Matthew McConaughey, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Mahershala Ali, and Keri Russell. Written and directed by Gary Ross, the film’s being distributed by STX Entertainment in 2,600 locations. McConaughey stars as real life Newton Knight, who lead a rebellion against the Confederate army and established a safe haven town for escaped slaves in Mississippi. It’s seen mixed reviews thus far, and stands to make in the low teens in its first frame, set to follow Central Intelligence, unless The Shallows surprises.
Shark-infested The Shallows is something of a wild card, with projections putting it in anywhere from $7 million to $12 million. Star Blake Lively’s last opening was a respectable $13.2 million for The Age of Adaline, but the subject matter differs… let’s say, immensely. This is only Lively’s second lead role without an ensemble backup, and her first foray into the horror space. Director Jaume Collet-Serra’s openings have all topped $11 million, with the latest being Run All Night. His last two horror films have done solid numbers for C-level flicks, with the Orphan opening to $12.9 million in 2009, and House of Wax debuting to $12 million in 2005. Early reviews for The Shallows are mostly positive, much better than Orphan or House, and Lively’s relative star power should edge this one into double digits, placing it in 5th for the weekend.
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Rotten Tomatoes | IMDb | Metacritic | ||||
Critics | Users | # of Ratings | Stars | # of Ratings | ||
Finding Dory | 94 | 91 | 139,837 | 8.1 | 15,714 | 77 |
ID: Resurgence | 55 | N/A | 41 | 6.3 | 2,764 | 49 |
Central Intelligence | 64 | 73 | 31,686 | 7.0 | 4,999 | 52 |
Free State of Jones | 31 | N/A | 61 | 5.8 | 255 | 50 |
The Shallows | 74 | N/A | 55 | N/A | N/A | 58 |
After facing a steep second showing dip last weekend, The Conjuring 2 is hoping to keep its head a little further above water this time. A 50% drop puts it around $7 million, but another 60% (or more) fall will leave it under $6 million. Either way it will take 6th place. Seventh belongs to Now You See Me 2, which will fall about 60% to bring in $3.7 million. X-Men Apocalypse will beat out Warcraft and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, falling around 50% to make between $2-3 million. Apocalypse seems to be winding down, losing more and more theaters to other summer blockbusters. The latest in the series has grossed only $148.2 million, ranking seventh in all X-Men adaptations. Out of the Shadows will take 9th, falling some 60% to bring in just over $2 million. Falling another 70% this weekend, Warcraft will see around a $2 million weekend, securing it 10th place in its third weekend. The RPG adaptation has grossed $381 million worldwide so far, but only $41 million of that has been domestic.
In just 1,000 theaters, Nicolas Winding Refn’s latest The Neon Demon should take 11th place. The hotly contested, very polarizing film was both celebrate and booed at Cannes, and is earning a lot of unfavorable comparison’s to Refn’s last Only God Forgives. The indie horror flick, distributed by Broad Green Pictures, should get low single digits, likely around $1.5 million. Starring Elle Fanning, Jena Malone, and Keanu Reeves, Demon will also be available on Amazon Video starting tomorrow. Also available on Amazon same day, Weiner-Dog, which looks to be the cutest non-children’s movie ever made from the trailer, will see very limited release this weekend–just two theaters. The film follows a lovable dachshund who brings joy to every new owner it encounters. Starring Danny DeVito, Julie Delpy, and Greta Gerwig, the comedy debuted at Sundance in January and is being released theatrically this weekend by IFC films.
(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)
Parker Mills | Contributor