YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (06.30.16)

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the box office-2

 

box office collage

4-DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

Finding Dory

$48.4 million

The Purge: Election Year

$36 million

The Legend of Tarzan

$33 million

The BFG

$24 million

Independence Day: Resurgence

$22.3 million

Finding Dory will just keep swimming to the top spot again this weekend, leaving the real battle for 2nd place. There are three wide openers, but none of them are set to pack much of a punch, especially with holdovers like Dory and Independence Day: Resurgence still on the playing field. Just like Pixar sibling Inside Out last year, Dory stands to reign over the 4th of July box office in its third weekend. And while Inside Out didn’t take the top spot until that weekend, Dory will be continuing its streak in first. Newcomers The Purge: Election Year, and The Legend of TarzanThe BFG will duke it out to see where they land in spots 2nd through 4th. 

finding-dory-trailer-poster-international

Dory‘s proved its no flash in the pan sequel, and doesn’t seem at all fettered by upcoming animated competition The Secret Life of Pets. Securing animation records for top opening and fastest to $300 million domestic, as well as grabbing the third best opening of 2016 so far, the sequel is fast catching up to other Pixar classics, only $104 million behind number one Toy Story 3‘s total ($415M). In fact, Dory will likely breeze past Disney cousin Zootopia‘s giant take of $340 million before this weekend, and those big weekly numbers combined with a family holiday will just keep edging it closer to the $400 million mark. A 45% drop to the 3-day weekend puts Dory around $40 million, and with the potential for an extra 20% thanks to Monday, Dory‘s looking at upwards of around $50 million. The only place Dory could remotely be called out as “lacking” is overseas, where it’s drawn in just under $112 million across 26 markets. However, most animated films are slow and steady earners internationally, and so long as Dory keeps its screens abroad, it should be set to catch up to, say, Finding Nemo‘s worldwide haul of $896 million. Or, better yet, Toy Story 3‘s $1 billion.

the purge

Now, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th places are all a little difficult to gauge this weekend, especially given the holiday can cause movies to change places from the 3-day to 4-day. With that in mind, we’re going out on a limb and giving 2nd to The Purge: Election YearThe Conjuring 2 and The Shallows have proved recently that horror can still find its way in through crowded box office, and Election Year is coming on the heels of two successful predecessors. When The Purge dropped in early June of 2013, it pulled in $34 million, and the sequel The Purge: Anarchy grabbed $29.8 million in mid-July 2014. Just like the first two, Election Year is coming from the same writer-director, James DeMonaco, and so far has the best reviews of any in the trilogy. It’s tracking better than Anarchy on social media, is the only new film marketed to the over-18 crowd, and with such a rife election impending–plus some truly brilliant marketing capitalizing on just that–Election Year seems to have a killer edge over its competition. In just shy of 2,800 theaters (similar to the first two), the horror flick stands to pull in between $30-40 million over the 4-day.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
Finding Dory $135.060 million $311.167 million 2,666,038  366,530
The Purge N/A N/A 2,869,947 73,671
Legend of Tarzan N/A N/A 384,327 16,237
The BFG N/A N/A 43,994 19,994
ID: Resurgence $41.040 million $49.868 million 1,570,641 71,576

The latest in a series of releases that seem to beg the question, “Did anyone want this movie?” The Legend of Tarzan will be fighting for 2nd place but will likely take 3rd with less than $35 million in the 4-day. Based off the character from Edgar Rice Burroughs pulp classics, this is the first we’ve seen of him since Disney’s animated Tarzan in 1999. The last Burroughs adaptation was also Disney–John Carter in 2012–and lost the studio a good deal of cash. Warner Bros. is taking the reins this time around, but it’s still not looking favorable. Social media is tracking low, somewhere around 2014’s forgettable Hercules, which opened to $29.8 million with Dwayne Johnson starring. Tarzan features an all star director in David Yates (Harry Potter 5-8, plus the upcoming spinoff Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them), a fantastic supporting cast (Margot Robbie, Djimon Hounsou, Christoph Waltz, and Samuel L. Jackson), but boasts lackluster reviews and centers around True Blood star Alexander Skarsgard, who hasn’t managed to break into the US box office quite yet. Warner Bros. is hoping for $35 million, but that’s a bit steep, and ultimately the $180 million price tag on Tarzan means it’ll have to make up the difference overseas. The action adventure flick hits 19 foreign markets this weekend, and is banking on a July 19th release in China.

legend tarzan

Fourth place belongs to Roald Dahl adaptation The BFG. It’s a beloved classic. It’s Disney. It’s directed by Steven Spielberg, written by the legendary Melissa Mathison, and features the voice talents of Mark Rylance fresh off his Oscar win for Best Supporting Actor. What could go wrong? Well, Spielberg’s last family film was the underwhelming The Adventures of Tintin in 2011, Mathison’s last big movie was in 1995, Bridge of Spies didn’t exactly inspire any kids to wonder what Rylance was doing next, and Dahl’s last film outing was Wes Anderson’s fantastic but low-grossing The Fantastic Mr. Fox. Reviews for The BFG have been generally favorable, but social media tracking for BFG has been startlingly low considering the director and studio. Spielberg’s last outing, the aforementioned Bridge of Spies, opened to $15.4 million, and Tintin debuted at $9.7 million. Even 2012’s Lincoln, with all its awards season buzz, opened wide to only $21 million. Some analysts are eyeing it higher, but The BFG likely won’t break much more than $20 million over 3-day, leaving it around mid-$20 million over the long weekend.

the bfg

Closely following in 5th place is Independence Day: Resurgence in its second showing. After a ho-hum debut last weekend of $41 million, the sequel has held its own in dailies, but an average of under $5 million in weekdays is low for a movie of its size, especially considering school’s out for the summer. Resurgence is tracking day-to-day very close to The Conjuring 2, but given $125 million difference in their budgets, that’s not exactly a good sign for the former. ID2 has pulled in $115 million in foreign, where it’s looking to make up that $165 million budget (and then some), but it’s off to a slow start overall. The epic film should see an uptick if only because of its title this weekend, so it won’t quite fall the expected 60%, but rather closer to 55%. This would leave it in the low-$20 million range over the 4-day weekend, but if it manages a smaller dip, say 40%, it could beat out The BFG and take 4th with just under $30 million.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
Finding Dory 94 90 145,066 8.0 25,275 77
The Purge 61 N/A 38 6.9 224 61
Legend of Tarzan 30 N/A 46 7.4 678 44
The BFG 72 N/A 95 7.3 1,012 66
ID: Resurgence 32 38 61,350 5.7 21,497 32

Central Intelligence will come in 6th for its third weekend out, a 45% fall from last weekend putting it at $12.1 million over the long weekend. The spy comedy has been a steady earner, grossing $74.8 million against a reported $50 million budget. Horror flick The Conjuring 2 will take 7th place with $4.7 million in the 4-day thanks to a 45% dip. In 19 days, the sequel has taken in $89.5 million, and an additional $155.7 million overseas. In 8th is Free State of Jones in its second weekend. The historical drama is expected to fall around 50% and bring in around $4 million in the 4-day due to middling reviews and low interest overall. Now You See Me 2 takes 9th, dropping around 45% in its fourth weekend to bring in $3.7 million by Monday night. Having drawn in $54 million domestic, the magical sequel has doubled that overseas with $108 million for a worldwide gross of $162.4 million, nearly $200 million behind its 2013 predecessor. Rounding out the Top 10 is X-Men: Apocalypse, which should drop about 50% to take in $1.5 million over the 4-day weekend. Apocalypse has grossed just shy of $152 million domestic and $373 million internationally, still lagging far behind most of the other films in its series stateside. It seems unlikely that it will even catch up to the first–2000’s X-Men–and its unadjusted gross of $157 million at this point.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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