Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (11.06.14)

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$70 million

$55 million

$8 million

$6 million

$5 million

Let’s start with the obvious: Interstellar is going to do well. Astronomically well, one might say, if one were particularly partial to puns. Others have been revising their predictions for Christopher Nolan’s latest significantly downward, since it collected about $1.35 million in its Wednesday limited release, rather than the $1.5 million expected. I think that’s premature. Interstellar has massive momentum; its weekly tweets have been in the five figures for a month and shot up to 77,000 this week, it has the highest number of pre-release Rotten Tomatoes ratings I’ve ever seen, and it’s tracking well. Awareness is high, because there are ads everywhere, and the entertainment news won’t stop talking about it. Fandango pre-sales are very strong. With a potential appeal to teens and adults across genders, it’s the clear choice to win the weekend.

Big Hero 6, however, also seems primed to pull in upwards of $50 million. Though not in the MCU proper, it’s a Disney release of a Marvel property, and it’s getting great reviews and a lot of late-stage interest. Twitter numbers this week are eight-fold what they were last week, and awareness and interest numbers are both good, all things considered. Expect this to ride its pedigree and late stage buzz to a strong second.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
N/A N/A 383,537  77,154
N/A N/A 298,634 48,374
$10.441 million $13.492 million 115,641 24,154
$23.702 million $62.096 million 443,546
$37.513 million $137.872 million 319,861 23,321

After the top two, the grosses drop considerably. There was only one new release of note last weekend, Nightcrawler, and it only managed second place, with just shy of $10.5 million. But it got glowing reviews, so I imagine it’ll have a fairly restrained drop, and should take third place without too much trouble. Fury, now entering its fourth week, may see a bigger dip in sales, but probably not a huge one. Gone Girl, on the other hand, now entering its sixth week, hasn’t had a weekend drop of more than 40 percent in its entire run.

The first-place finisher last week, Ouija, took a big hit from its $20 million debut, dropping 46 percent to $10.7 million. I imagine it’ll take an even bigger one this week, given its extremely poor reviews, the increasingly distant end of Halloween season, and the presence of other options for its mostly teen audience to see. If Gone Girl limits its drop to 33 percent — entirely plausible, given its history — it’ll take in $5.5 million, over half of what Ouija did last week. And a 50 percent drop for Ouija seems, if not likely, then at least very, very possible.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
72 N/A 70,910 9.3 13,664 75
86 N/A 26,801 8.1 1,244 75
94 88 27,891 8.4 10,975 76
78 89 64,720 8.1 39,585 64
88 90 69,879 8.5 104,148 79

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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