Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (2.11.16)

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the box office-2

Deadpool

$62 million

Zoolander 2

$21 million

Kung Fu Panda 3

$18.2 million

How To Be Single

$17.5 million

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

$5.4 million

Nothing says Valentine’s Day like an ultra-violent, unflinchingly crude, red spandex-wearing, “don’t call him a hero” mercenary. Ryan Reynold’s buzzy Deadpool finally hits theaters this weekend, and all estimates have it destroying the competition over the long holiday weekend. The Merc With A Mouth is predicted to bring in between $60 and $70 million FSSM, with some estimates going as high as $75. Realistically, the hard-R pic should come close to $62 million over the four-day for a total that has a chance at beating the combined box office for the rest of the top five.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
Deadpool N/A N/A 3,242,611 530,846
Zoolander 2 N/A N/A 1,477,800 62,600
Kung Fu Panda 3 $41.282 million $72.316 million 22,840,237 31,971
How To Be Single N/A N/A 218,571 27,215
Star Wars: The Force Awakens $247.966 million $907.431 million 16,782,685 156,670

If you don’t know that Deadpool is dropping this weekend, you’ve either not been on the internet for the last few months or you have some impressive parental control settings in place. 20th Century Fox has been bombarding fans and concerned parents with trailer after clip after teaser of Reynolds as the foul-mouthed comic book character. Their approach isn’t surprising given the internet masses are the reason the film even got made. Reynolds campaigned to do right by the character after Fox’s X-Men franchise got him all wrong, to the point that they removed his mouth. Deadpool, of course, is affectionately known as the “Merc with a Mouth,” so that was not a well-received choice. Back in summer 2014, test footage “leaked” on the internet, and the groundswell of positive buzz convinced Fox to officially greenlight the project that fall.

The film is tracking exceptionally well among men of all ages and women under 25, and it’s expected to surpass Ant-Man’s $57.2 million bow while trouncing Fox’s Fantastic Four reboot from last year. The R-rating will keep a handful of fans away, but keep in mind that the last major R-rated superhero film, WB’s The Watchmen, opened to $55.2 million.

Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson’s Zoolander sequel should take second place for the holiday weekend. Though the comedy is getting panned by critics, curiosity surrounding Zoolander 2 will help it to a low $20 millions opening weekend. The Paramount pic reunites Stiller’s Derek Zoolander, Wilson’s Hansel, Will Ferrell’s Mugatu and introduces Penelope Cruz and Kristen Wiig to the fold. The original opened to $15.5 million back in September of 2001, which was a complicated time at the box office, but it’s gone on to have a massive following thanks to cable TV.

Kung Fu Panda 3 should be number 3 for frame number 3. Though it dropped last weekend against the Super Bowl, look for it to rebound at close to $18 million for the four-day weekend. With kids out of school on Monday, the lone family film will be a major counter-programming draw against raunchy comedies and violent action. The DreamWorks Animation pic won’t quite cross $100 million domestic by Monday, but it should hit that mark before next weekend.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
Deadpool 81 N/A N/A 8.8 13,421 64
Zoolander 2 30 N/A N/A 5.5 989 41
Kung Fu Panda 3 80 87 78,108 7.9 5,508 65
How To Be Single 48 N/A N/A 5.4 281 60
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 92 90 195,118 8.4 427,765 81

This weekend’s final wide release is How To Be Single. The ensemble comedy, which stars Rebel Wilson, Dakota Johnson, Leslie Mann, and Allison Brie, will come close to KFP3 with $17.5 million FSSM. Its up against a crowded comedy field and even Wilson and Johnson’s star power won’t be enough to push the R-rated ladies night pic past Zoolander 2.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant will do their best to fight for the final spot in the top five. Star Wars has the edge, beating Revenant over Super Bowl weekend and tracking slightly better going into the long weekend. The Leo DiCaprio-starrer is not to be underestimated, but this one should go to J.J. Abrams’ box office juggernaut. Both will do somewhere between $5 and $6 million.

The Coen Bros’ Hail, Caesar! (which really doesn’t need that much punctuation in the title) will claim the seventh spot with close to $5 million. That would be a nearly 57% drop from its surprisingly high opening weekend of $11.4 million. Critics loved the film, but audiences were not so high on the star-studded 1950s-Hollywood romp. The only real romantic offering for V-Day, Nicholas Sparks’ The Choice will take eighth at $4-5 million. I can’t stress enough that audiences ought to be giving more love to Pride And Prejudice And Zombies, but unless something shocking happens, PPZ will battle Disney’s coast guard rescue movie The Finest Hours for 9th place. Both movies should be in the high $3 million range for the four day weekend, and chances are Deadpool will steal a chunk of PPZ‘s audience.

Michael Moore’s Where To Invade Next is likely the biggest of the indie releases for the weekend. The Oscar-winning director of Bowling for Columbine returns with a light-hearted doc starring Moore as he travels to various countries to learn about how the U.S. could improve its own prospects. Meanwhile, Oscar-nominees Room, Brooklyn, Spotlight, and The Big Short will continue to dominate among the limited releases.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

 | Staff Writer
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  1. Pingback: The Pre-Release Ticket Tracking Is Usually Wrong: A Recent History of Misleading Projections | We Minored In Film

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