YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (3.31.16)

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Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

$66.4 million

Zootopia

$15.6 million

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

$10.7 million

God’s Not Dead 2

$10.5 million

Miracles from Heaven

$5.8 million

Thanks to a total lack of competition, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will easily sweep the top spot for the second week in a row. Even a 60% drop will give it a second week take of at least $66 million, pushing its domestic gross close well over the $250 million mark. Worldwide, the film’s already grossed over $530 million, with $329 million of that coming from foreign markets. This is largely thanks to the day-and-date release everywhere—including China, where it grossed over $57 million in just a weekend. BvS has knocked 2006’s Superman Returns domestic total out of the park in its first 5 days, and it’s shooting for Deadpool’s current gross of $351 million. It’s already ahead day-by-day, and the Marvel movie is finally slowing down a little as it loses theaters each weekend. With nothing big opening until mid-April when The Jungle Book roars into theaters, BvS will be unheeded for awhile. But does it have the longevity Deadpool’s enjoyed?

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Sure BvS is more marketable on the surface, as it’s not R-Rated, but Deadpool has enjoyed great numbers chiefly thanks to audience enjoyment, which seems to be lacking for BvS. Deadpool aside, what the Warner Bros. hit really has its eye on is The Dark Knight Rises’ $448 million or, hopefully, The Dark Knight’s $534.8 million domestic totals. Though Rises opened over $2 million higher in 2012, The Dark Knight grossed more thanks to shallower drops week-to-week when it debuted in 2008. Rises actually fell behind Knight as early as its second week domestically, though it did make $167 million more internationally, leading to an $80 million higher worldwide gross. Part of the reason The Dark Knight Rises performed worse in the states  were the reviews. Yes, Rises still saw overwhelmingly positive reviews, and even now has 87% critics and 90% users Rotten Tomatoes scores. But The Dark Knight was, quite simply, better. Its RT scores are 94% critics and 94% users, and Rises was held up to its majesty in every way.

Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
Batman v Superman $166.007 million $201.330 million 3,916,621  1,966,803
Zootopia $75.063 million $252.738 million 571,772 141,536
Greek Wedding $17.862 million $23.735 million N/A 18,183
God’s Not Dead 2  N/A N/A 8,146,900 33,237
Miracles from Heaven $14.812 million $38.187 million N/A N/A

So what does this mean for the poorly-reviewed but fan-enjoyed Batman v Superman? The Dark Knight Rises experienced a 61% drop in its second weekend, but against a late-July box office that had a lot more variety and choices than the current March one. However, the old March/spring opening record holder The Hunger Games also experienced almost a 62% drop in its second weekend, but, to be fair, it was up against openers Wrath of the Titans and Mirror Mirror. All Batman v Superman is facing in wide release is God’s Not Dead 2. The real concern for BvS’s performance going forward is the 60% drop it experienced opening weekend from high Friday numbers to okay Sunday’s numbers. It’s normal for movies to be front-loaded, especially for genre fare. But this extreme front-loading is relevant when looking at something like Avengers: Age of Ultron, which opened nearly $30 million ahead of BvS. See, AoU was a mere $3 million higher than BvS on its own Friday, but fell only 40% by Sunday. It’s this kind of longevity that gets the cash in the long haul, and it’s not clear yet whether or not BvS has the chops to pass $350 million, much less $500 million.

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Zootopia will stay comfortably in 2nd place, falling about 35% in its fifth weekend. Barely touched by BvS’s huge opening, the animated pic has a current take of $252.7 million and $718 worldwide. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will take 3rd, falling about 40% from its opening. The sequel’s seen mostly negative reviews, but audiences are liking it well enough. The, uh, competition, God’s Not Dead 2 will take 4th.The original God’s Not Dead opened at $9.2 million in 2014, in only 780 theaters, and this one will his upwards of 2,300 screens this Friday. Despite the increase of locations, it’s doubtful the sequel can make the $60.8 million splash its predecessor did. What with Miracles from Heaven, Risen, and The Young Messiah, there’s been a huge influx of faith-based film lately, and the Christian audience is bound to be feeling some weariness, especially in the post-Easter season. GND2 still stands to make around $10 million thanks to smart, church-based marketing. Fellow Christian pic Miracles from Heaven will fall around 40% in its third weekend, taking 5th place.

Newcomer Meet the Blacks will see 1,000 theaters, claiming 6th place with around $5 million, right on Miracles’ tail. The horror comedy take on The Purge stars Mike Epps, Zulay Henao, George Lopez, and Mike Tyson—and it would have a chance at a sizable over-$10 million opening if not for a relative lack of awareness. After all, even the fifth Scary Movie opened at $14 million back in 2013. The last such parody, Fifty Shades of Black, opened in twice as many theaters at the end of January with a lot bigger social media presence (which was still small by comparison), and only made $5.9 million in its first weekend.

     
Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
Batman v Superman 29 72 179,393 7.4 178,754 44
Zootopia 99 95 50,375 8.4 46,278 78
Greek Wedding 25 68 11,806 6.3 2,065 37
God’s Not Dead 2  N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A
Miracles from Heaven 50 84 11,903 6.5 1,082 44

In 7th, Allegiant will drop around 50%, after a brutal 67.5% drop last weekend. The third Divergent flick will finally pass the $50 million mark after this weekend with a just under $5 million take, but it’ll be a far cry from its predecessors’ box office successes. The saving grace here is that the Y.A. movie has made over $70 million in foreign markets, bringing its worldwide total to $119 million. 10 Cloverfield Lane will take 8th with $3.6 million, bringing its domestic total to over $60 million. In 9th is resilient Deadpool, taking in just under $3 million in its eighth weekend. Indie flick Hello, My Name Is Doris has a good shot at 10th. Adding nearly 500 theaters this weekend to bring its total to just under 1,000, the Sally Field film should pull in over $2 million.

Everybody Wants Some!!, Richard Linklater’s followup to Boyhood, was released last night in a handful of locations. Considered a spiritual sequel to Linklater’s own Dazed and Confused, the film has seen glowing reviews so far, and will see wide release next weekend. Wednesday night alone, it’s already pulled in over $33 thousand. Similarly, Midnight Special is expanding into another 50 theaters this weekend. The sci-fi family film has grossed over $386 thousand in just five theaters over two weekends. Don Cheadle’s Miles Davis biopic Miles Ahead is seeing limited release this weekend as well. Also starring Emayatzy Corinealdi and Ewan McGregor, the film is Cheadle’s feature directing debut and has been seeing mixed to positive reviews.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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