YOUR COMPLETE WEEKEND BOX OFFICE TRACKING, PREDICTIONS, & ANALYSIS (4.28.16)

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the box office-2

box office collage

The Jungle Book

$33.8 million

Keanu

$17 million

Mother’s Day

$11 million

Ratchet & Clank

$9.5 million

The Huntsman: Winter’s War

$8.8 million

While there are three new wide releases this weekend, the issue for the box office is that, really, everyone’s on pins and needles just waiting for Captain America: Civil War. After all the good press, and in anticipation of the other glowing reviews we’re going to get this weekend after the movie hits over 60% of its international locations, moviegoers are going to be more likely to buy advance tickets for the Marvel juggernaut than see any newcomers. Where the three newbies may succeed is simple counter-programming, hoping to bring in the cash before Civil War drops next week. That said, none of them have a chance at besting current #1 The Jungle Book. A 40% dip puts it at just shy of $37 million in its third weekend, while a more conservative 45% drop puts it about $3 million lower than that—which is still a stellar take. After 12 days, the latest Disney live action remake is only $19 million behind the highest grossing Alice In Wonderland’s day-to-date numbers. Jungle is also poised to overtake the domestic cumulative of every other Disney remake by Sunday night, leaving it around $250 million on Monday morning, just $84 million shy of Alice’s 18 week total.

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The most promising new release, taking 2nd place, is cat-centered comedy Keanu. Directed by Key & Peele director Peter Atencio, the action-comedy stars the eponymous Central sketch stars Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele, and is cowritten by Peele himself. Keanu features the duo attempting to get Peele’s new kitten Keanu (named after Keanu Reeves, naturally) back after a break-in, bringing them head-to-head with a seedy criminal underworld. The film also stars Method Man, Luis Guzmán, Nia Long, and Will Forte, and has seen mixed to positive reviews thus far. Marketing has been on-point, from full-sized posters of a kitten in a snapback and gold chains, to a parody trailer featuring all of the cast replaced with cats. (Watch the all-cat trailer here.) The film’s looking to open north of $15 million, though it’s unlikely to see numbers close to the last R-Rated comedy to hit the marketplace—The Boss, which opened at $23.6 million earlier this month. Considering the $15 million budget, Keanu should be purring no matter what.

 
  Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
The Jungle Book $103.261 million $205.916 million 1,081,262  100,550
Keanu N/A N/A 142,851 7,211
Mother’s Day N/A N/A 140,280 3,435
Ratchet & Clank N/A N/A 66,876 44,208
The Huntsman $19.445 million $23.544 million 5,191,619 39,303

In 3rd is Mother’s Day, the latest in a string of Garry Marshall-directed holiday-based rom-coms. More family-focused this time, the comedy stars everyone from Jennifer Aniston to Aasif Mandvi to Julia Roberts in an ill-advised wig. Valentine’s Day, the first in the holiday “trilogy,” opened at $56 million back in early 2010, but the second, New Year’s Eve, debuted to a much, much lower $13 million less than two years later. Mother’s Day is eyeing a low opening, likely close to Marshall’s Raising Helen, which opened just under $11 million in 2004. Awareness for the star-studded flick is low overall, thanks to minimal marketing. Early poor reviews shouldn’t hurt it too much, though, as none of Marshall’s movies do particularly well with critics.

Fourth place goes to the first in a series of video game movies of the year. Ratchet & Clank will lead the charge of adaptations that seem to be coming a little too late, followed by Angry Birds, Warcraft, and Assassin’s Creed. Ratchet & Clank has a leg-up with a spin on the first 2002 PlayStation game having been released only a couple weeks ago on PS4, and the film is a similar reimagining of the characters’ origin story. Clank features the talents of Paul Giamatti, John Goodman, Rosario Dawson, and Belle Thorne in supporting roles, with James Arnold Taylor and David Kaye voicing, respectively, Ratchet and Clank. The animated action-adventure offers a family-friendly PG rating similar to The Jungle Book, but likely won’t provide much competition, and will open in the high single digits.

The Huntsman: Winter’s War will take 5th place in its second showing, down some 55% after a lackluster opening last weekend. Sixth place goes to Barbershop: The Next Cut, which will fall at least 40% for a $6.3 million showing, but could see a drop as steep as 50%, putting it at $5.3 million. Zootopia will keep going strong, taking in around $4.6 million with a 30% drop in 7th place. The animated flick has grossed $318 million so far, with a worldwide take of $908.7 million. The Boss will claim 8th place with $3.7 million, with Batman v Superman following in 9th with $2.2 million. BvS has grossed $320.9 million domestic so far, and $853 worldwide, but has little momentum to continue performing. Its still some $10 million behind Deadpool’s day-to-date numbers, and with Civil War looming, it seems less and less likely BvS will cross $350 million domestic. And rounding up the Top 10 is Criminal, barely hanging in for its third week with around $1.7 million after a 45% fall.

       
  Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
  Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
The Jungle Book 94 92 49,538 8.0 48,990 77
Keanu 76 N/A 26 6.5 470 57
Mother’s Day 9 N/A 12 5.4 255 19
Ratchet & Clank 20 N/A 5 7.7 388 32
The Huntsman 17 51 35,838 6.2 10,941 35

Jeremy Saulnier’s Green Room is the wildcard this week. The critically-loved thriller is being taken nationwide by this Friday, after expanding from 3 to 30 locations in the last couple weekends. It’s unclear quite how many theaters it’ll be hitting, though, which makes predicting the numbers a little tricky. So far it looks like it’ll be in less than 2,000 locations, but considering how well the film has performed in limited release, it’s got a solid chance at besting at least BvS and taking 8th place. However, the punks vs skinheads thriller could be a big surprise and fare much, much better. The Witch, ’s largest release to date, grossed $8.8 million in 2,200 theaters in February. And this time last year, Ex Machina made $5.3 million in only 1,200. Similarly R-Rated, well-reviewed, and favored at festivals as the other two, Green Room could realistically have a shot at stealing away 5th or 6th place this weekend.

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Black comedy, crime-thriller Term Life will see 50 locations this weekend. Starring Vince Vaughn and Hailee Steinfeld as an estranged father and daughter on the run from a drug lord and corrupt cops, the film will also be released on VOD. British biopic The Man Who Knew Infinity will see 5 theaters stateside thanks to IFC Films. Based on the Robert Kanigel book of the same name, the film stars Dev Patel as Srinivasa Ramanujan, an Indian mathematician known for extraordinary contributions to the field of abstract mathematics despite having no formal training. The film has received mixed to positive reviews and also stars Jeremy Irons and Stephen Fry. Fellow biopic Papa Hemingway in Cuba also sees limited release this weekend, and reviews so far haven’t been kind. The drama is about, of course, Earnest Hemingway’s time in pre-revolution Havana, and stars Adrian Sparks as the famous writer and Giovanni Ribisi as a journalist interviewing him.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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