WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

	Straight Outta Compton	$29.8 million
	Sinister 2	$17 million
	American Ultra	$15 million
	Hitman: Agent 47	$14.5 million
	Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation	$10.2 million

Even with three more openers this weekend–Sinister 2, American Ultra, and Hitman: Agent 47–Straight Outta Compton has nothing to fear. Let’s be real, none of them have the amazing word of mouth, the inventive marketing, or the wide audience. Compton will likely see a drop of barely over 50%, which isn’t too shabby given it’s opening was a large $62.1. It had the largest opening of a music biopic in history, and it’s quickly catching on Walk the Line‘s lifetime gross of $119.5 million.

The only other old holdover will be Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, down about 40% for its 4th weekend. Rogue Nation has been a steady earner, retaining the number 2 daily slot since Compton‘s opening. Rogue Nation will also be the only thing keeping the top 5 from being dominated by a 17+ audience (unless accompanied by an adult), since 4 out of the 5 this weekend are Rated R.

It’s been a subpar year for big horror openings, and Sinister 2 is opening a little too early to cash in on the Halloween crowd. However, horror franchise sequels have a tendency to draw crowds, regardless of their ratings. The Conjuring sequel Annabelle opened at $37.1, and even Insidious: Chapter 3 scared up $22.7 million its first weekend.  Three years ago, the first Sinister opened at $18 million, not bad given its measly $3 million budget.

The fourth Blumhouse horror flick in as many months, Sinister 2 will function after the same low-budget/high-return idea. However, Sinister had Ethan Hawke, and Sinister 2 has only Shannyn Sossamon. Though Sossamon’s had a steady career of TV supporting roles in the last 5 years, she’s been absent from theaters for even longer. Recent low-budget Blumhouse horrors like The Gallows, Unfriended, and Ouija didn’t have, or need, big name stars, but the step down from Ethan Hawke makes Sinister 2 feel a little like a straight-to-DVD sequel, despite its wide opening.

The first Sinister also had favorable reviews, and still holds a 62% from critics (61% from the audience) on Rotten Tomatoes. Sinister 2, with only 16 critical reviews counted, sits at 6%. Its saving grace will be not only brand recognition, but a pure lack of competition thanks to the more specialized audiences of American Ultra and Hitman: Agent 47.

	Opening Weekend	Current Gross	Facebook Likes	Tweets
Straight Outta Compton	$60.2 million	$74.936 million	1,974,728	1,322,642
Sinister 2	N/A	N/A	1,512,139	23,617
American Ultra	N/A	N/A	112,751	54,449
Hitman: Agent 47	N/A	N/A	182,078	5,011
M:I – Rogue Nation	$55.52 million	$142.606 million	3,343,104	33,459

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation is extremely careful to keep its PG-13 rating, thanks to keeping a vigilant eye on violence, and especially on blood. Conspicuously absent from Rogue Nation, blood abounds in American Ultra, which is polarizing critics thanks to being “too gory,” a fight violent movies will always face. American Ultra, which reunites former Adventureland co-stars Jesse Eisenberg and Kristen Stewart, lands somewhere in the mixed genre comedy-action space that’s hard to get just right.

Seth Rogan-Evan Goldberg collaborations Pineapple Express and This Is the End excelled, and Ultra has some of the same idea with mixing in the stoner comedy elements. If Ultra can wrangle the same crowd, it’ll be able to nab the 3rd place spot, if not overtake Sinister 2. This is Stewart’s first time in wide-release since the last Twilight movie, and Eisenberg’s last time on screen before his turn next year as Lex Luthor in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.  American Ultra director Nima Nourizadeh’s last movie, Project X, also an R-rated comedy, opened at $21 million with practically no recognizable faces, at least at the time. What’s more, Ultra‘s tracking much higher than either of its fellow openers on Twitter, and buzz has been (pun intend) high for a few months now.

The first attempt to bring popular video game Hitman to the silver screen was back in 2007. It opened at $13.2 million and went on to a dismal $39.7 million domestically, but did almost double that number worldwide. The new reboot, Agent 47, isn’t looking much better in early reviews, and it’s claim to fame is co-starring Zachary Quinto. Sure, Quinto’s been in the high-grossing Star Trek reboots as everyone’s favorite half-Vulcan, but he’s largely been absent from films otherwise. Agent 47 is seeing some heat for having some cool action sequences… that are all given away in the trailer. To be fair, though, you may have not seen the trailer, thanks to the nearly-invisible marketing campaign. Agent 47‘s marketing pales when compared with American Ultra, Sinister 2, or pretty much any other movie this summer. Usually we’d project action films a little higher, but with American Ultra‘s ultra-violence and the continued competition from Rogue Nation, it seems unlikely Agent 47 will do anything other than shoot for the mid-teens.

The Man from U.N.C.L.E has been in 3rd for dailies, but it’s no match for the newcomers. It’ll fall off the top 5 as quickly as it came, similar to last month’s Pixels. UNCLE will be lucky to hit $10 million in its second week with about a 40% drop. Fantastic Four and The Gift will follow just behind for 7th and 8th spot, and Vacation and Ant-Man will fill out the top 10, all with $3-4 million each.

	Rotten Tomatoes			IMDb		Metacritic
	Critics	Users	# of Ratings	Stars	# of Ratings
Straight Outta Compton	89	96	33,697	8.4	10,698	72
Sinister 2	6	N/A	18	5.9	172	31
American Ultra	44	N/A	36	6.7	306	51
Hitman: Agent 47	4	N/A	25	6	398	29
M:I – Rogue Nation	93	91	62,439	7.8	72,125	75

Lionsgate Premiere’s She’s Funny That Way will see limited release as well as VOD this weekend. The film was originally slated for wide release by Clarius Entertainment, before Clarius suddenly dropped the film and LGP picked it up. Despite featuring an all-star case (Owen Wilson, Jennifer Aniston, and Will Forte, to name a few), Way has primarily seen negative reviews. Mumblecore front-runner director Joe Swanberg’s latest, Digging for Fire, also gets limited release tomorrow, and will be released on VOD on August 25th. The film stars Jake Johnson and Rosemarie DeWitt as a married couple who embark on separate weekend adventures after discovering a bone and a gun.

Grandma, a dramedy directed by Paul Weitz, is Lily Tomlin’s first starring role in nearly 30 years. Tomlin plays the titular Grandma to Julia Garner’s pregnant granddaughter. The two women embark on a road trip to become closer and try to figure out their respective next steps in life. Set for limited release by Sony Pictures Classics this Friday, the film has been highly praised by critics since its premiere at Sundance. Another festival favorite, Learning to Drive, will see limited release, too. The comedy tells the story of a successful book editor forced to become more independent after separating from her husband. Starring Ben Kingsley and Patricia Clarkson, Learning to Drive was named first-runner up for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF last year.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

Lauren Patterson | Contributor