THE TRACKING BOARD

5-Day Holiday Weekend

	Despicable Me 3	$93 million
	Baby Driver	$21 million
	Transformers: The Last Knight	$25 million
	Wonder Woman	$22.7 million
	Cars 3	$12.5 million

Another holiday weekend, another box office analysis. Set to lead the five-day weekend is the fourth installment in Universal and Illumination’s Despicable Me franchise, following the first two films and the Minions spin-off. While the actual Fourth of July holiday doesn’t see box office numbers spike because of people at barbecues or the beach, or wherever the party is, the added bonus Monday and upping this weekend to a five-day opening box office, should propel the numbers higher.

As a franchise, the Despicable Me world has made $2.69 billion worldwide (including Despicable Me 3‘s $18.3 million from international markets so far), making the franchise one of Illumination’s most lucrative IPS out of their small list of movies. As a series, the movies have only gotten bigger and bigger with each subsequent opening, with Despicable Me kicking things off with $56.3 million in 2010, Despicable Me 2 with $83.5 million in 2013, and then Minions with $115.7 million in 2015, so while Despicable Me 3 will break that streak, it will continue the franchise’s strong presence and performance. After all, take the spinoff out of the mix, and the increasing openings remain in tact. Should Despicable Me 3 prove as formidable as its predecessor, especially combined with the long theater durations family animated films tend to have, it could rise to be the best performing movie in the franchise.

Universal Pictures

So far, the film has received mostly mixed reviews. It’s the lowest-rated of the main three films (it boasts 64 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, where the first earned an 81 and the second a 73), but is tracking higher than Minions, which earned a 56 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Still, a good rule of thumb with these types of films — family-friendly and from a popular franchise — is to let reviews get in the way of box office performances. It’s a holiday weekend, so kids will be out of schools and Cars 3, its most direct competition, has already been in theaters in two weeks, so it’s likely the same core audience who will go see Despicable Me 3 has already seen Cars 3. Provided they aren’t packing up and ditching the cities for the long weekend, Despicable Me 3 should prove a popular way to kill a couple hours (in the AC, no less) for families this weekend when they’re not off on adventures.

	Opening Weekend	Current Gross	Facebook Likes	Tweets
Despicable Me 3	N/A	N/A	18,243,806	33,713
Baby Driver	N/A	$5.7m	99,433	91,848
Transformers: The Last Knight	$44.6m	$82.1m	66,261	195,715
Wonder Woman	$103.2m	$327.8m	24,790	358,536
Cars 3	$53.6m	$108.6m	N/A	30,881

After Despicable Me 3, numbers take a plummet, but that’s looking at things without context. While Baby Driver, Edgar Wright’s new film, won’t make a third of what Despicable Me 3 is set to bring in, that doesn’t mean it’s $20 million opening, give or take, is any less than impressive, especially for an original, R-rated film with a $35 million budget (before P&A). Sony is predicting an opening around the high-teens, but with the stellar reviews for the film, first starting out of SXSW and now with a 97 percent on Rotten Tomatoes (Wright’s highest-rated film to date), the fresh premise, and Wright’s dedicated fanbase, it won’t be too surprising to see the film surpass its studios expectations. Not to mention the film has already proven successful at the box office, bringing in $5.7 million by the end of Wednesday, including $2.1 million from Tuesday night previews. Could the movie be closer to $30 million or even a little more when all is said and done next week? It’s very possible. Regardless, it’ll be the biggest opening in Wright’s career by a long shot. Currently, his best opening is $10.6 million for Scott Pilgrim vs. the World in 2010. Of course, it also helps that Baby Driver is opening in 3,226 theaters domestically, which is exponentially higher than any of his past films.

TriStar Pictures

Next up, the fifth Transformers film, The Last Knight, should see a massive tumble, well over 50 percent, from its already mediocre opening. So far the film has made $82 million domestically and, as is always the case with this franchise and similar franchises, most of its box office has come from international markets. Globally, the film has made $281 million, well below its predecessors, but it still has plenty of time to catch up. The film marked the highest opening in China for the franchise yet, which is a noteworthy feat, and couple possibly help make it one of the highest-grossing films in the franchise worldwide, even as domestic audiences grow weary of it.

Wonder Woman, doing the exact opposite of Transformers by performing well and never dropping over 50 percent, should continue that streak this weekend and continue its ascent as the highest-grossing film domestically in the DC Extended Universe. Now at $663 million worldwide, it’s only $5 million away from surpassing Man of Steel. However, Suicide Squad and Batman v Superman will be more difficult to catch up to, at $745 million and $873 million, respectively, but if anyone can do it, it’s Wonder Woman. Perhaps one of the most striking things about Wonder Woman, putting it again in sharp contrast against Transformers and other blockbusters, is that its domestic and foreign intakes are nearly neck-and-neck, rather the latter far outperforming the former.

	Rotten Tomatoes		IMDb	Metacritic
	Critics	Users	Stars
Despicable Me 3	62	N/A	6.6	55
Baby Driver	97	N/A	8.6	85
Transformers: The Last Knight	15	54	5.3	28
Wonder Woman	92	91	8.1	76
Cars 3	66	76	7.2	59

Finally, the fight for fifth place will be a close one between Cars 3 and the new broad, aimed-at-adults comedy The House starring veteran comedians Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler. Both are projected to make land somewhere in the low double-digits (between $10 and $13 million), but because of the extra days off from school, it’s likely that Cars 3 will just edge out The House. Cars 3, now at $150.7 million worldwide, continues to struggle to reach the heights of the two films before it, but this weekend should be a nice if inconsequential boost. Meanwhile, The House is opening in only 3,134 theaters, the lowest of any new film this weekend and more than 1,000 less than Cars 3, which doesn’t help matters. Despite the appeal of Ferrell and Poehler, and a mindless, fun comedy in the middle of summer, it will likely come just shy of landing in the top 5.

(Sources: boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Tweets and Likes represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

Anya Crittenton | Associate Editor