Your Complete Weekend Box Office Tracking, Predictions, & Analysis (04.23.15)

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$14.5 million

$12 million

$11 million

$8 million

HOME

$6 million

The box office topper three weeks running, Furious 7, is likely to keep its spot for one more weekend. Even if it drops 50 percent of its audience (as it did last week), none of this week’s three wide releases — of which only The Age of Adaline is going to be in more than 1,500 theaters — is likely to unseat it. Indeed, Ex Machina and Little Boy probably won’t break the top five. (Though Ex Machina has a chance — more on that in a moment.)

The question for Adaline is whether it can take second place from Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2. Adaline has some weighty names working in its favor — I knew Blake Lively starred, but I didn’t realize until today that Harrison Ford also makes an appearance — but it’s limited by genre and awareness. I tend to think that if Adaline were based on a book, it would do a lot better; it’s been marketed well, but it needed something to make people remember it. Nevertheless, awareness is okay, and interest among young women is very good. Tracking has it projected for $11 million, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it slightly overperformed.

Meanwhile, in its opening weekend, Mall Cop took in a reasonably respectable $23 million, but I doubt it can keep up much momentum. Reviews are in the tank — until a couple days ago, it boasted an impressive 0% rating on Rotten Tomatoes — and audiences didn’t seem to connect with it either. A drop of over 50 percent seems indicated. One way or another, Mall Cop and Adaline are going to be close. If Adaline overperforms at all — and by “at all,” I mean by even $100,000 — I imagine it will overtake Mall Cop.

Opening Weekend Current Gross Facebook Likes Tweets
$147.187 million $300.534 million 56,535,662 154,063*
N/A N/A 297,382 45,022*
$23.762 million $27.457 million 1,119,279 42,240*
$15.845 million $18.269 million 1,112,603 183,757*
HOME $52.108 million $144.894 million

In the #4 and #5 spots, things get a bit trickier. It seems clear that one of the two will go to Unfriended. Universal’s laptop-based horror movie didn’t do huge box office numbers, but it was a surprise critical success, and buzz — and the lack of competitors in the genre — should work in its favor in its second week. It should be able to keep its audience drop to under 50 percent, which will put it firmly above Home, which should pull in somewhere around $6 million in its fifth week.

The potential upset here is Ex Machina. The sci-fi thriller been out for two weeks in limited release, and has done extremely well there. It’s also generated a decent amount of buzz in certain circles. The problem, though, is that Ex Machina‘s wide release isn’t very wide; it’s only coming out in about 1,200 theaters, which is less than half of what, for instance, Unfriended will see. Moreover, though Ex Machina has some clever marketing behind it, it doesn’t have much in the way of traditional marketing; I haven’t seen very many trailers or ads for it. I don’t even have tracking numbers for it. It’s possible that Ex Machina has the juice to knock Home out of the top five. I think, though, that it would take an act of God (pun very much intended) for it to overtake Unfriended.

     
Rotten Tomatoes IMDb Metacritic
Critics Users # of Ratings Stars # of Ratings  
82 88 162,024 7.9 114,779 67
54 N/A 17,431 7.5 841 52
2 50 20,011 3.9 2,409 13
61 49 15,053 6.1 3,085 59
HOME 47 69 32,384 6.8 9,891 55

(Sources: boxoffice.com, rottentomatoes.com, imdb.com, metacritic.com. Starred figures are estimates. Tweets represent figures for this week only. Figures represent numbers at time of writing, and may have changed. Tracking Board does not report Rotten Tomatoes user ratings for movies that have not yet seen wide release.)

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